The Democratic Party's commanding 95.7% implied probability in Michigan's 11th congressional district reflects the seat's established partisan lean in suburban Oakland County, where the party has held the seat since 2019 and won by double digits in the prior cycle. With incumbent Haley Stevens retiring to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, multiple Democratic primary candidates—including state Sen. Jeremy Moss—have entered, while Republican options such as Troy Mayor Ethan Baker remain limited in visibility and resources ahead of the August primary and November general. Trader positioning aligns with historical patterns for this district and similar open seats in comparable areas, where structural advantages in voter registration and past margins have consistently favored Democrats. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Republican turnout, a divisive Democratic primary outcome, or late-cycle national shifts, though such developments have not yet materialized in polling or candidate filings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMI-11 House Election Winner
MI-11 House Election Winner
$56,265 Обс.
$56,265 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
1%
$56,265 Обс.
$56,265 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$44,047 Обс.
96%
Republican Party
$12,219 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party's commanding 95.7% implied probability in Michigan's 11th congressional district reflects the seat's established partisan lean in suburban Oakland County, where the party has held the seat since 2019 and won by double digits in the prior cycle. With incumbent Haley Stevens retiring to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, multiple Democratic primary candidates—including state Sen. Jeremy Moss—have entered, while Republican options such as Troy Mayor Ethan Baker remain limited in visibility and resources ahead of the August primary and November general. Trader positioning aligns with historical patterns for this district and similar open seats in comparable areas, where structural advantages in voter registration and past margins have consistently favored Democrats. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Republican turnout, a divisive Democratic primary outcome, or late-cycle national shifts, though such developments have not yet materialized in polling or candidate filings.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$56,265Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party's commanding 95.7% implied probability in Michigan's 11th congressional district reflects the seat's established partisan lean in suburban Oakland County, where the party has held the seat since 2019 and won by double digits in the prior cycle. With incumbent Haley Stevens retiring to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, multiple Democratic primary candidates—including state Sen. Jeremy Moss—have entered, while Republican options such as Troy Mayor Ethan Baker remain limited in visibility and resources ahead of the August primary and November general. Trader positioning aligns with historical patterns for this district and similar open seats in comparable areas, where structural advantages in voter registration and past margins have consistently favored Democrats. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Republican turnout, a divisive Democratic primary outcome, or late-cycle national shifts, though such developments have not yet materialized in polling or candidate filings.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$56,265Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party's commanding 95.7% implied probability in Michigan's 11th congressional district reflects the seat's established partisan lean in suburban Oakland County, where the party has held the seat since 2019 and won by double digits in the prior cycle. With incumbent Haley Stevens retiring to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, multiple Democratic primary candidates—including state Sen. Jeremy Moss—have entered, while Republican options such as Troy Mayor Ethan Baker remain limited in visibility and resources ahead of the August primary and November general. Trader positioning aligns with historical patterns for this district and similar open seats in comparable areas, where structural advantages in voter registration and past margins have consistently favored Democrats. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Republican turnout, a divisive Democratic primary outcome, or late-cycle national shifts, though such developments have not yet materialized in polling or candidate filings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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