Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez holds a clear edge in New Mexico’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. The seat’s partisan voting index hovers near even, yet Vasquez’s 2024 reelection margin and the district’s recent Democratic performance provide structural advantages over Republican nominee Greg Cunningham, a Marine veteran who secured his party’s nomination in the June primary. April polling showed Vasquez narrowly ahead amid high undecideds, while nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Lean Democratic. Midterm dynamics and limited Republican investment in the race have reinforced the current implied probability, though the narrow 2024 presidential margin in the district leaves room for shifts based on turnout and national conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNM-02 House Election Winner
NM-02 House Election Winner
$31,927 Обс.
$31,927 Обс.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
89%
Republican Party
12%
$31,927 Обс.
$31,927 Обс.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,154 Обс.
89%
Republican Party
$18,773 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez holds a clear edge in New Mexico’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. The seat’s partisan voting index hovers near even, yet Vasquez’s 2024 reelection margin and the district’s recent Democratic performance provide structural advantages over Republican nominee Greg Cunningham, a Marine veteran who secured his party’s nomination in the June primary. April polling showed Vasquez narrowly ahead amid high undecideds, while nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Lean Democratic. Midterm dynamics and limited Republican investment in the race have reinforced the current implied probability, though the narrow 2024 presidential margin in the district leaves room for shifts based on turnout and national conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Обсяг
$31,927Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez holds a clear edge in New Mexico’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. The seat’s partisan voting index hovers near even, yet Vasquez’s 2024 reelection margin and the district’s recent Democratic performance provide structural advantages over Republican nominee Greg Cunningham, a Marine veteran who secured his party’s nomination in the June primary. April polling showed Vasquez narrowly ahead amid high undecideds, while nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Lean Democratic. Midterm dynamics and limited Republican investment in the race have reinforced the current implied probability, though the narrow 2024 presidential margin in the district leaves room for shifts based on turnout and national conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$31,927Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez holds a clear edge in New Mexico’s 2nd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party. The seat’s partisan voting index hovers near even, yet Vasquez’s 2024 reelection margin and the district’s recent Democratic performance provide structural advantages over Republican nominee Greg Cunningham, a Marine veteran who secured his party’s nomination in the June primary. April polling showed Vasquez narrowly ahead amid high undecideds, while nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Lean Democratic. Midterm dynamics and limited Republican investment in the race have reinforced the current implied probability, though the narrow 2024 presidential margin in the district leaves room for shifts based on turnout and national conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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