Recent numerical weather model runs indicate peak daytime temperatures in Beijing on August 6 likely between 36–38°C, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging, low-level warm advection, and urban heat-island effects that amplify surface maxima under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Ensemble spread in guidance from global and regional models creates the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 36°C, 37°C, and 38°C, as small differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or timing of any diurnal convection can shift the observed high by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology for the region shows typical highs near 32–34°C, so current conditions represent above-average warmth consistent with the market’s emphasis on the upper 30s. Updated short-range forecasts and observational data over the next 24 hours will narrow resolution probabilities.