Recent forecasts from sources including the UK Met Office and AccuWeather indicate a peak of 28–30°C for Istanbul on August 6, driven by moderate northerly flow off the Black Sea, limited cloud cover, and typical Bosphorus maritime moderation that curbs extreme heating. Ensemble models show tight clustering around these values with low precipitation risk, though urban heat island effects at official stations could nudge readings slightly higher or lower. Trader positioning favoring 28°C at 51.5% implied probability captures this model consensus and the narrow historical range for early-August maxima near 28–29°C, while limited volume on 30°C+ outcomes reflects low odds of rapid intensification absent a stronger southerly shift. New model runs expected overnight will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 6?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 6?
28°C 53%
29°C 25%
27°C 20%
26°C 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 6, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
5%
27°C
20%
28°C
53%
29°C
25%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 53%
29°C 25%
27°C 20%
26°C 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 6, 2026
22°C or below
$397 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$439 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$172 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$58 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$106 Обс.
5%
27°C
$305 Обс.
20%
28°C
$892 Обс.
53%
29°C
$327 Обс.
25%
30°C
$72 Обс.
3%
31°C
$107 Обс.
1%
32°C or higher
$68 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the UK Met Office and AccuWeather indicate a peak of 28–30°C for Istanbul on August 6, driven by moderate northerly flow off the Black Sea, limited cloud cover, and typical Bosphorus maritime moderation that curbs extreme heating. Ensemble models show tight clustering around these values with low precipitation risk, though urban heat island effects at official stations could nudge readings slightly higher or lower. Trader positioning favoring 28°C at 51.5% implied probability captures this model consensus and the narrow historical range for early-August maxima near 28–29°C, while limited volume on 30°C+ outcomes reflects low odds of rapid intensification absent a stronger southerly shift. New model runs expected overnight will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,943Дата завершення
Aug 6, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the UK Met Office and AccuWeather indicate a peak of 28–30°C for Istanbul on August 6, driven by moderate northerly flow off the Black Sea, limited cloud cover, and typical Bosphorus maritime moderation that curbs extreme heating. Ensemble models show tight clustering around these values with low precipitation risk, though urban heat island effects at official stations could nudge readings slightly higher or lower. Trader positioning favoring 28°C at 51.5% implied probability captures this model consensus and the narrow historical range for early-August maxima near 28–29°C, while limited volume on 30°C+ outcomes reflects low odds of rapid intensification absent a stronger southerly shift. New model runs expected overnight will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$2,943Дата завершення
Aug 6, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources including the UK Met Office and AccuWeather indicate a peak of 28–30°C for Istanbul on August 6, driven by moderate northerly flow off the Black Sea, limited cloud cover, and typical Bosphorus maritime moderation that curbs extreme heating. Ensemble models show tight clustering around these values with low precipitation risk, though urban heat island effects at official stations could nudge readings slightly higher or lower. Trader positioning favoring 28°C at 51.5% implied probability captures this model consensus and the narrow historical range for early-August maxima near 28–29°C, while limited volume on 30°C+ outcomes reflects low odds of rapid intensification absent a stronger southerly shift. New model runs expected overnight will refine the exact maximum before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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