Recent high-resolution and ensemble forecasts from multiple models indicate a peak temperature of 35–36°C in Madrid on September 15, driven by clear skies, light southerly winds, and a stable warm air mass under high pressure. This setup follows a warming trend with Monday highs already near 33°C and favors the market’s leading 36°C and 35°C outcomes. Conditions remain well above the 1991–2020 average high of 26.6°C and approach or exceed the September 15 record of 34.3°C. Minor model differences in timing or exact maximum could shift probabilities slightly before resolution, with final updates expected within the next 24–48 hours.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on September 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 15?
36°C 50%
35°C 38%
37°C 12%
34°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
4%
35°C
38%
36°C
50%
37°C
12%
38°C
1%
39°C
1%
40°C
1%
41°C or higher
<1%
36°C 50%
35°C 38%
37°C 12%
34°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
31°C or below
$46 Обс.
<1%
32°C
$58 Обс.
1%
33°C
$45 Обс.
1%
34°C
$304 Обс.
4%
35°C
$853 Обс.
38%
36°C
$598 Обс.
50%
37°C
$919 Обс.
12%
38°C
$105 Обс.
1%
39°C
$47 Обс.
1%
40°C
$47 Обс.
1%
41°C or higher
$97 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-resolution and ensemble forecasts from multiple models indicate a peak temperature of 35–36°C in Madrid on September 15, driven by clear skies, light southerly winds, and a stable warm air mass under high pressure. This setup follows a warming trend with Monday highs already near 33°C and favors the market’s leading 36°C and 35°C outcomes. Conditions remain well above the 1991–2020 average high of 26.6°C and approach or exceed the September 15 record of 34.3°C. Minor model differences in timing or exact maximum could shift probabilities slightly before resolution, with final updates expected within the next 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,119Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-resolution and ensemble forecasts from multiple models indicate a peak temperature of 35–36°C in Madrid on September 15, driven by clear skies, light southerly winds, and a stable warm air mass under high pressure. This setup follows a warming trend with Monday highs already near 33°C and favors the market’s leading 36°C and 35°C outcomes. Conditions remain well above the 1991–2020 average high of 26.6°C and approach or exceed the September 15 record of 34.3°C. Minor model differences in timing or exact maximum could shift probabilities slightly before resolution, with final updates expected within the next 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$3,119Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent high-resolution and ensemble forecasts from multiple models indicate a peak temperature of 35–36°C in Madrid on September 15, driven by clear skies, light southerly winds, and a stable warm air mass under high pressure. This setup follows a warming trend with Monday highs already near 33°C and favors the market’s leading 36°C and 35°C outcomes. Conditions remain well above the 1991–2020 average high of 26.6°C and approach or exceed the September 15 record of 34.3°C. Minor model differences in timing or exact maximum could shift probabilities slightly before resolution, with final updates expected within the next 24–48 hours.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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