Recent weather model consensus from agencies like NOAA and ECMWF points to clear skies and light winds over Madrid on September 15, favoring moderate overnight radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32–35°C. This setup typically yields a minimum of 18–21°C, aligning with late-summer climatology where the historical average low sits at 15.5°C. Trader emphasis on the 12°C-or-below outcome at 45.5% implied probability reflects residual model spread and the possibility of stronger cooling under calm conditions or slight forecast revisions, while probabilities clustered around 16–17°C capture the central tendency of current guidance. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus any updated AEMET observations, will refine these ranges before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Madrid on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 15?
12°C or below 89%
22°C or higher 62%
16°C 29%
15°C 25%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
12°C or below
89%
13°C
17%
14°C
21%
15°C
25%
16°C
29%
17°C
22%
18°C
21%
19°C
20%
20°C
20%
21°C
13%
22°C or higher
62%
12°C or below 89%
22°C or higher 62%
16°C 29%
15°C 25%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
12°C or below
$10 Обс.
89%
13°C
$10 Обс.
17%
14°C
$0 Обс.
21%
15°C
$0 Обс.
25%
16°C
$0 Обс.
29%
17°C
$0 Обс.
22%
18°C
$0 Обс.
21%
19°C
$0 Обс.
20%
20°C
$8 Обс.
20%
21°C
$10 Обс.
13%
22°C or higher
$10 Обс.
62%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from agencies like NOAA and ECMWF points to clear skies and light winds over Madrid on September 15, favoring moderate overnight radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32–35°C. This setup typically yields a minimum of 18–21°C, aligning with late-summer climatology where the historical average low sits at 15.5°C. Trader emphasis on the 12°C-or-below outcome at 45.5% implied probability reflects residual model spread and the possibility of stronger cooling under calm conditions or slight forecast revisions, while probabilities clustered around 16–17°C capture the central tendency of current guidance. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus any updated AEMET observations, will refine these ranges before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Обсяг
$48Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from agencies like NOAA and ECMWF points to clear skies and light winds over Madrid on September 15, favoring moderate overnight radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32–35°C. This setup typically yields a minimum of 18–21°C, aligning with late-summer climatology where the historical average low sits at 15.5°C. Trader emphasis on the 12°C-or-below outcome at 45.5% implied probability reflects residual model spread and the possibility of stronger cooling under calm conditions or slight forecast revisions, while probabilities clustered around 16–17°C capture the central tendency of current guidance. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus any updated AEMET observations, will refine these ranges before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$48Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus from agencies like NOAA and ECMWF points to clear skies and light winds over Madrid on September 15, favoring moderate overnight radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32–35°C. This setup typically yields a minimum of 18–21°C, aligning with late-summer climatology where the historical average low sits at 15.5°C. Trader emphasis on the 12°C-or-below outcome at 45.5% implied probability reflects residual model spread and the possibility of stronger cooling under calm conditions or slight forecast revisions, while probabilities clustered around 16–17°C capture the central tendency of current guidance. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model runs, plus any updated AEMET observations, will refine these ranges before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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