Short-term forecast model spread from ECMWF and GFS runs creates the tight clustering around 21–23 °C for Istanbul’s September 16 high, with traders weighting ensemble means and recent 48-hour verification. Mid-September climatology places the long-term average near 24 °C, but a weak northerly flow off the Black Sea and possible marine layer from the Sea of Marmara are suppressing daytime maxima, while urban heat-island effects and clear-sky radiative heating support the upper tail of outcomes. No strong warm or cold advection is currently indicated, keeping probabilities distributed and sensitive to the next model update cycle.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 16?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 16?
18°C or below 43%
21°C 40%
22°C 40%
23°C 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
18°C or below
43%
19°C
6%
20°C
16%
21°C
40%
22°C
24%
23°C
40%
24°C
7%
25°C
39%
26°C
4%
27°C
5%
28°C or higher
11%
18°C or below 43%
21°C 40%
22°C 40%
23°C 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Обс.
43%
19°C
$0 Обс.
6%
20°C
$0 Обс.
16%
21°C
$0 Обс.
40%
22°C
$5 Обс.
24%
23°C
$0 Обс.
40%
24°C
$0 Обс.
7%
25°C
$0 Обс.
39%
26°C
$0 Обс.
4%
27°C
$0 Обс.
5%
28°C or higher
$0 Обс.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast model spread from ECMWF and GFS runs creates the tight clustering around 21–23 °C for Istanbul’s September 16 high, with traders weighting ensemble means and recent 48-hour verification. Mid-September climatology places the long-term average near 24 °C, but a weak northerly flow off the Black Sea and possible marine layer from the Sea of Marmara are suppressing daytime maxima, while urban heat-island effects and clear-sky radiative heating support the upper tail of outcomes. No strong warm or cold advection is currently indicated, keeping probabilities distributed and sensitive to the next model update cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Обсяг
$5Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast model spread from ECMWF and GFS runs creates the tight clustering around 21–23 °C for Istanbul’s September 16 high, with traders weighting ensemble means and recent 48-hour verification. Mid-September climatology places the long-term average near 24 °C, but a weak northerly flow off the Black Sea and possible marine layer from the Sea of Marmara are suppressing daytime maxima, while urban heat-island effects and clear-sky radiative heating support the upper tail of outcomes. No strong warm or cold advection is currently indicated, keeping probabilities distributed and sensitive to the next model update cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$5Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast model spread from ECMWF and GFS runs creates the tight clustering around 21–23 °C for Istanbul’s September 16 high, with traders weighting ensemble means and recent 48-hour verification. Mid-September climatology places the long-term average near 24 °C, but a weak northerly flow off the Black Sea and possible marine layer from the Sea of Marmara are suppressing daytime maxima, while urban heat-island effects and clear-sky radiative heating support the upper tail of outcomes. No strong warm or cold advection is currently indicated, keeping probabilities distributed and sensitive to the next model update cycle.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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