Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS for northern Italy indicate a ridge of high pressure promoting subsidence warming over the Po Valley, with Milan’s maximum temperature on August 15 most likely reaching 34–35 °C. Model spreads remain narrow but show sensitivity to boundary-layer moisture and daytime cloud cover, which could trim or boost peak readings by 1 °C. Historical mid-August climatology places the long-term average near 31 °C, so current guidance reflects modestly above-normal conditions driven by the evolving synoptic pattern. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 34 °C and 35 °C while discounting extremes above 37 °C or below 32 °C given the short lead time and limited forecast divergence.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Milan on August 15?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 15?
34°C 38%
35°C 34%
36°C 20%
33°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
8%
34°C
38%
35°C
34%
36°C
20%
37°C
5%
38°C
5%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
<1%
34°C 38%
35°C 34%
36°C 20%
33°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
$215 Обс.
<1%
31°C
$24 Обс.
1%
32°C
$64 Обс.
4%
33°C
$80 Обс.
8%
34°C
$211 Обс.
38%
35°C
$363 Обс.
34%
36°C
$64 Обс.
20%
37°C
$6 Обс.
5%
38°C
$5 Обс.
5%
39°C
$7 Обс.
1%
40°C or higher
$71 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS for northern Italy indicate a ridge of high pressure promoting subsidence warming over the Po Valley, with Milan’s maximum temperature on August 15 most likely reaching 34–35 °C. Model spreads remain narrow but show sensitivity to boundary-layer moisture and daytime cloud cover, which could trim or boost peak readings by 1 °C. Historical mid-August climatology places the long-term average near 31 °C, so current guidance reflects modestly above-normal conditions driven by the evolving synoptic pattern. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 34 °C and 35 °C while discounting extremes above 37 °C or below 32 °C given the short lead time and limited forecast divergence.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,110Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS for northern Italy indicate a ridge of high pressure promoting subsidence warming over the Po Valley, with Milan’s maximum temperature on August 15 most likely reaching 34–35 °C. Model spreads remain narrow but show sensitivity to boundary-layer moisture and daytime cloud cover, which could trim or boost peak readings by 1 °C. Historical mid-August climatology places the long-term average near 31 °C, so current guidance reflects modestly above-normal conditions driven by the evolving synoptic pattern. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 34 °C and 35 °C while discounting extremes above 37 °C or below 32 °C given the short lead time and limited forecast divergence.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,110Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS for northern Italy indicate a ridge of high pressure promoting subsidence warming over the Po Valley, with Milan’s maximum temperature on August 15 most likely reaching 34–35 °C. Model spreads remain narrow but show sensitivity to boundary-layer moisture and daytime cloud cover, which could trim or boost peak readings by 1 °C. Historical mid-August climatology places the long-term average near 31 °C, so current guidance reflects modestly above-normal conditions driven by the evolving synoptic pattern. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 34 °C and 35 °C while discounting extremes above 37 °C or below 32 °C given the short lead time and limited forecast divergence.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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