Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a Central Park high near 85°F on August 18, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, partial cloud cover, and a weak disturbance that may limit full solar heating. This places the most likely outcome squarely in the 86-87°F bin, consistent with the market-implied 53.5% probability, while the 17.5% odds on 84-85°F capture residual uncertainty from overnight moisture and timing of any showers. Historical August averages hover around 83°F, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly tempered by seasonal humidity and urban heat-island effects. Updated short-range forecasts tomorrow morning will refine the final observed maximum before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in NYC on August 18?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 18?
86-87°F 44%
84-85°F 27%
88-89°F 14%
82-83°F 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 18, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
7%
84-85°F
27%
86-87°F
44%
88-89°F
14%
90-91°F
4%
92-93°F
7%
94°F or higher
1%
86-87°F 44%
84-85°F 27%
88-89°F 14%
82-83°F 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 18, 2026
75°F or below
$35 Обс.
<1%
76-77°F
$35 Обс.
<1%
78-79°F
$44 Обс.
1%
80-81°F
$49 Обс.
3%
82-83°F
$119 Обс.
7%
84-85°F
$249 Обс.
27%
86-87°F
$1,137 Обс.
44%
88-89°F
$76 Обс.
14%
90-91°F
$92 Обс.
4%
92-93°F
$25 Обс.
7%
94°F or higher
$98 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a Central Park high near 85°F on August 18, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, partial cloud cover, and a weak disturbance that may limit full solar heating. This places the most likely outcome squarely in the 86-87°F bin, consistent with the market-implied 53.5% probability, while the 17.5% odds on 84-85°F capture residual uncertainty from overnight moisture and timing of any showers. Historical August averages hover around 83°F, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly tempered by seasonal humidity and urban heat-island effects. Updated short-range forecasts tomorrow morning will refine the final observed maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,958Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a Central Park high near 85°F on August 18, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, partial cloud cover, and a weak disturbance that may limit full solar heating. This places the most likely outcome squarely in the 86-87°F bin, consistent with the market-implied 53.5% probability, while the 17.5% odds on 84-85°F capture residual uncertainty from overnight moisture and timing of any showers. Historical August averages hover around 83°F, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly tempered by seasonal humidity and urban heat-island effects. Updated short-range forecasts tomorrow morning will refine the final observed maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,958Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a Central Park high near 85°F on August 18, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, partial cloud cover, and a weak disturbance that may limit full solar heating. This places the most likely outcome squarely in the 86-87°F bin, consistent with the market-implied 53.5% probability, while the 17.5% odds on 84-85°F capture residual uncertainty from overnight moisture and timing of any showers. Historical August averages hover around 83°F, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly tempered by seasonal humidity and urban heat-island effects. Updated short-range forecasts tomorrow morning will refine the final observed maximum before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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