Recent forecast updates from European models, including ECMWF and Météo-France guidance, show moderating Atlantic flow and increased cloud cover limiting peak heating in Paris after the early-August heatwave, anchoring market-implied odds near 27–28°C. These outcomes reflect ensemble consensus on daytime maxima around the seasonal average plus 2–4°C, with uncertainties in convective timing and boundary-layer mixing differentiating 26°C from 29°C scenarios. Historical August baselines near 25–26°C, combined with current soil moisture deficits and urban heat-island effects, support the tight clustering while underscoring sensitivity to any last-minute ridge strengthening or clearer skies. Traders are monitoring the next model runs ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Paris on August 18?
27°C 38%
28°C 33%
26°C 15%
29°C 9%
25°C or below
5%
26°C
15%
27°C
38%
28°C
33%
29°C
9%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
27°C 38%
28°C 33%
26°C 15%
29°C 9%
25°C or below
5%
26°C
15%
27°C
38%
28°C
33%
29°C
9%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast updates from European models, including ECMWF and Météo-France guidance, show moderating Atlantic flow and increased cloud cover limiting peak heating in Paris after the early-August heatwave, anchoring market-implied odds near 27–28°C. These outcomes reflect ensemble consensus on daytime maxima around the seasonal average plus 2–4°C, with uncertainties in convective timing and boundary-layer mixing differentiating 26°C from 29°C scenarios. Historical August baselines near 25–26°C, combined with current soil moisture deficits and urban heat-island effects, support the tight clustering while underscoring sensitivity to any last-minute ridge strengthening or clearer skies. Traders are monitoring the next model runs ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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