Recent Météo-France guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a post-heatwave cooldown over northern France, with Atlantic-influenced flow and partly sunny conditions limiting afternoon maxima in Paris to the mid-20s Celsius for August 7. This positions 26–27 °C as the most probable outcomes, consistent with the market’s 53.5 % and 21.5 % implied probabilities, respectively. Earlier high-pressure ridging that produced 34–37 °C readings earlier in the week has shifted eastward, reducing southerly warm advection and allowing modest diurnal warming under clear spells without reaching 28 °C thresholds in most guidance. Updated short-range forecasts show little spread around these values, with resolution criteria tied to official Paris station observations.