Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts position Tokyo's August 18 maximum near 31–32°C under mostly cloudy conditions driven by the persistent Pacific high-pressure system extending over the Kanto region. This setup favors typical mid-August warmth with limited diurnal variability and moderate humidity, aligning with the market's concentration of implied probability on 30–32°C outcomes. Historical JMA normals place daily highs around 31.2°C, while short-range model consensus and urban heat-island amplification support slight upward revisions from cooler baseline runs. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours represent the primary catalyst that could shift trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
31°C 39%
30°C 26%
32°C 18%
29°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
12%
30°C
26%
31°C
39%
32°C
18%
33°C
6%
34°C
3%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 39%
30°C 26%
32°C 18%
29°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
$686 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$13 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$9 Обс.
1%
28°C
$38 Обс.
4%
29°C
$85 Обс.
12%
30°C
$41 Обс.
26%
31°C
$113 Обс.
39%
32°C
$84 Обс.
18%
33°C
$24 Обс.
6%
34°C
$45 Обс.
3%
35°C or higher
$35 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts position Tokyo's August 18 maximum near 31–32°C under mostly cloudy conditions driven by the persistent Pacific high-pressure system extending over the Kanto region. This setup favors typical mid-August warmth with limited diurnal variability and moderate humidity, aligning with the market's concentration of implied probability on 30–32°C outcomes. Historical JMA normals place daily highs around 31.2°C, while short-range model consensus and urban heat-island amplification support slight upward revisions from cooler baseline runs. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours represent the primary catalyst that could shift trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,174Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts position Tokyo's August 18 maximum near 31–32°C under mostly cloudy conditions driven by the persistent Pacific high-pressure system extending over the Kanto region. This setup favors typical mid-August warmth with limited diurnal variability and moderate humidity, aligning with the market's concentration of implied probability on 30–32°C outcomes. Historical JMA normals place daily highs around 31.2°C, while short-range model consensus and urban heat-island amplification support slight upward revisions from cooler baseline runs. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours represent the primary catalyst that could shift trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,174Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts position Tokyo's August 18 maximum near 31–32°C under mostly cloudy conditions driven by the persistent Pacific high-pressure system extending over the Kanto region. This setup favors typical mid-August warmth with limited diurnal variability and moderate humidity, aligning with the market's concentration of implied probability on 30–32°C outcomes. Historical JMA normals place daily highs around 31.2°C, while short-range model consensus and urban heat-island amplification support slight upward revisions from cooler baseline runs. Updated JMA briefings and ensemble guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours represent the primary catalyst that could shift trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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