**Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models point to a Monday night low in the upper 50s to low 60s°F for Chicago on August 24, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds.** This setup favors radiational cooling overnight after highs in the mid-70s, but Chicago’s proximity to Lake Michigan provides some moderation while dew points in the 50s limit how far temperatures can drop. The near-even split in market-implied odds between 66°F or higher and 47°F or below, alongside clustered probabilities around the 52–65°F bins, reflects model uncertainty in the precise minimum and the sensitivity of overnight lows to small changes in cloud cover, wind speed, or lake breeze timing. Historical August minima average near 65°F, so the current pattern represents modestly cooler-than-normal conditions without extreme cold-air advection. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely drive any near-term shifts in trader positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Chicago on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 24?
47°F or below 93%
66°F or higher 47%
58-59°F 37%
48-49°F 36%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 24, 2026
47°F or below
93%
48-49°F
36%
50-51°F
36%
52-53°F
19%
54-55°F
19%
56-57°F
19%
58-59°F
28%
60-61°F
19%
62-63°F
19%
64-65°F
19%
66°F or higher
47%
47°F or below 93%
66°F or higher 47%
58-59°F 37%
48-49°F 36%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 24, 2026
47°F or below
$5 Обс.
93%
48-49°F
$5 Обс.
36%
50-51°F
$5 Обс.
36%
52-53°F
$0 Обс.
19%
54-55°F
$0 Обс.
19%
56-57°F
$0 Обс.
19%
58-59°F
$5 Обс.
28%
60-61°F
$0 Обс.
19%
62-63°F
$0 Обс.
19%
64-65°F
$15 Обс.
19%
66°F or higher
$10 Обс.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models point to a Monday night low in the upper 50s to low 60s°F for Chicago on August 24, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds.** This setup favors radiational cooling overnight after highs in the mid-70s, but Chicago’s proximity to Lake Michigan provides some moderation while dew points in the 50s limit how far temperatures can drop.
The near-even split in market-implied odds between 66°F or higher and 47°F or below, alongside clustered probabilities around the 52–65°F bins, reflects model uncertainty in the precise minimum and the sensitivity of overnight lows to small changes in cloud cover, wind speed, or lake breeze timing. Historical August minima average near 65°F, so the current pattern represents modestly cooler-than-normal conditions without extreme cold-air advection. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely drive any near-term shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$45Дата завершення
Aug 24, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models point to a Monday night low in the upper 50s to low 60s°F for Chicago on August 24, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds.** This setup favors radiational cooling overnight after highs in the mid-70s, but Chicago’s proximity to Lake Michigan provides some moderation while dew points in the 50s limit how far temperatures can drop.
The near-even split in market-implied odds between 66°F or higher and 47°F or below, alongside clustered probabilities around the 52–65°F bins, reflects model uncertainty in the precise minimum and the sensitivity of overnight lows to small changes in cloud cover, wind speed, or lake breeze timing. Historical August minima average near 65°F, so the current pattern represents modestly cooler-than-normal conditions without extreme cold-air advection. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely drive any near-term shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$45Дата завершення
Aug 24, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models point to a Monday night low in the upper 50s to low 60s°F for Chicago on August 24, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds.** This setup favors radiational cooling overnight after highs in the mid-70s, but Chicago’s proximity to Lake Michigan provides some moderation while dew points in the 50s limit how far temperatures can drop. The near-even split in market-implied odds between 66°F or higher and 47°F or below, alongside clustered probabilities around the 52–65°F bins, reflects model uncertainty in the precise minimum and the sensitivity of overnight lows to small changes in cloud cover, wind speed, or lake breeze timing. Historical August minima average near 65°F, so the current pattern represents modestly cooler-than-normal conditions without extreme cold-air advection. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely drive any near-term shifts in trader positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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