**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a daytime temperature range of 28–33°C for August 29 under a southwesterly airstream, with mainly cloudy conditions, isolated showers or thunderstorms, and high relative humidity (65–95%).** This setup limits overnight radiative cooling, keeping the minimum temperature likely in the upper 20s °C. Some numerical models show brief dips near 25–27°C in the early morning hours amid variable cloud cover, while others align closer to 27–28°C. The market's tight distribution—27°C at 39% and 28°C at 31.5% implied probability—reflects this model spread and uncertainty in exact minimum thresholds. Key differentiating factors include the degree of cloudiness (thicker clouds trap heat), wind mixing from the west-southwest (force 3–4), and any localized convective activity that could enhance or suppress cooling. Historical August climatology in Hong Kong features typical minima near 25–26°C, but the current monsoon pattern supports warmer nights. Traders are weighting the latest HKO guidance and ensemble outputs heavily, with fresh model runs and the next HKO update expected to narrow the range before resolution.