Persistent high-pressure dominance and warm southerly advection across the Iberian Peninsula are elevating overnight minimum temperatures in Madrid well above the 17.3°C climatological average for September 4. Current model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs projects lows of 21–26°C under clear skies with light northeasterly winds, limiting radiational cooling, though some ensemble members allow for slightly cooler boundary-layer conditions near 18–20°C. This setup explains why market-implied probabilities cluster around 18–20°C as leading outcomes while assigning lower odds to 17°C or below. Fresh forecast updates and official AEMET observations tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Madrid on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 4?
17°C or below 89%
23°C 87%
24°C 86%
21°C 80%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 4, 2026
17°C or below
89%
18°C
48%
19°C
48%
20°C
43%
21°C
80%
22°C
80%
23°C
87%
24°C
86%
25°C
80%
26°C
2%
27°C or higher
49%
17°C or below 89%
23°C 87%
24°C 86%
21°C 80%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 4, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Обс.
89%
18°C
$0 Обс.
48%
19°C
$0 Обс.
48%
20°C
$0 Обс.
43%
21°C
$0 Обс.
80%
22°C
$0 Обс.
80%
23°C
$0 Обс.
87%
24°C
$0 Обс.
86%
25°C
$0 Обс.
80%
26°C
$0 Обс.
2%
27°C or higher
$0 Обс.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure dominance and warm southerly advection across the Iberian Peninsula are elevating overnight minimum temperatures in Madrid well above the 17.3°C climatological average for September 4. Current model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs projects lows of 21–26°C under clear skies with light northeasterly winds, limiting radiational cooling, though some ensemble members allow for slightly cooler boundary-layer conditions near 18–20°C. This setup explains why market-implied probabilities cluster around 18–20°C as leading outcomes while assigning lower odds to 17°C or below. Fresh forecast updates and official AEMET observations tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure dominance and warm southerly advection across the Iberian Peninsula are elevating overnight minimum temperatures in Madrid well above the 17.3°C climatological average for September 4. Current model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs projects lows of 21–26°C under clear skies with light northeasterly winds, limiting radiational cooling, though some ensemble members allow for slightly cooler boundary-layer conditions near 18–20°C. This setup explains why market-implied probabilities cluster around 18–20°C as leading outcomes while assigning lower odds to 17°C or below. Fresh forecast updates and official AEMET observations tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high-pressure dominance and warm southerly advection across the Iberian Peninsula are elevating overnight minimum temperatures in Madrid well above the 17.3°C climatological average for September 4. Current model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs projects lows of 21–26°C under clear skies with light northeasterly winds, limiting radiational cooling, though some ensemble members allow for slightly cooler boundary-layer conditions near 18–20°C. This setup explains why market-implied probabilities cluster around 18–20°C as leading outcomes while assigning lower odds to 17°C or below. Fresh forecast updates and official AEMET observations tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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