PAGASA’s latest outlook points to a 25°C overnight low in Manila on August 22 under the southwest monsoon (habagat), with traders clustering probabilities tightly around 25–27°C because persistent cloud cover and scattered rains limit both daytime heating and nocturnal radiative cooling. High humidity and reduced insolation from monsoon cloud decks compress the diurnal temperature range, while steering patterns keep any distant tropical systems from altering the regime in the next 48 hours. Historical August baselines (mean low near 25°C) and stable model guidance reinforce this narrow band, though a brief clearing window or heavier localized rainfall could nudge the actual minimum by 1–2°C in either direction before resolution.