Current forecast models from sources like timeanddate and specialized meteorological outlooks indicate Moscow's minimum temperature on August 22 will likely fall in the 11–13°C range due to typical late-summer radiative cooling overnight under light winds and variable cloud cover. This aligns with the market's tight clustering of probabilities around those thresholds, reflecting ensemble consensus on boundary-layer temperatures amid seasonal transition toward autumn. Historical August minima average near 12–13°C, with differentiation among outcomes hinging on precise wind speeds (higher mixing raises lows) and humidity levels that modulate dew-point depression. No major synoptic systems are expected to disrupt this pattern, though minor model divergences in cloud timing could shift the exact low by 1–2°C before resolution.