Recent National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on September 4 point to an overnight low in the low 70s, with Central Park guidance around 71°F amid partly cloudy conditions and light northwest winds that limit radiational cooling. Model consensus from sources like the NWS and private ensembles shows modest spread due to variable cloud cover and humidity levels, which can trap heat near the surface and push minima toward 74–75°F or hold them near 70–71°F. Historical September averages near 65°F provide context, but current steering patterns and lack of strong cold advection keep readings elevated. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 70–75°F range because of this narrow forecast window, while lower-probability tails reflect potential for clearer skies or minor model shifts ahead of the evening update. Upcoming NWS model runs and local observations will refine the exact minimum before market resolution.