Recent numerical weather prediction models, including outputs aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, indicate a minimum temperature near 25–26°C for Shenzhen on September 17 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. This consensus drives the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 26°C and nearby thresholds, as traders weigh small differences in ensemble runs for overnight radiative cooling under easterly flow and moderate humidity. Subtropical high pressure and typical late-summer sea-surface temperatures support limited diurnal range, consistent with September climatology where average lows hover near 24°C. New model updates and initial overnight observations will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 17?
21°C or below 70%
31°C or higher 67%
26°C 50%
27°C 45%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 17, 2026
21°C or below
70%
22°C
38%
23°C
38%
24°C
14%
25°C
14%
26°C
34%
27°C
32%
28°C
3%
29°C
15%
30°C
14%
31°C or higher
67%
21°C or below 70%
31°C or higher 67%
26°C 50%
27°C 45%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 17, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Обс.
70%
22°C
$0 Обс.
38%
23°C
$0 Обс.
38%
24°C
$0 Обс.
14%
25°C
$5 Обс.
14%
26°C
$22 Обс.
34%
27°C
$70 Обс.
32%
28°C
$0 Обс.
3%
29°C
$0 Обс.
15%
30°C
$0 Обс.
14%
31°C or higher
$0 Обс.
67%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including outputs aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, indicate a minimum temperature near 25–26°C for Shenzhen on September 17 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. This consensus drives the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 26°C and nearby thresholds, as traders weigh small differences in ensemble runs for overnight radiative cooling under easterly flow and moderate humidity. Subtropical high pressure and typical late-summer sea-surface temperatures support limited diurnal range, consistent with September climatology where average lows hover near 24°C. New model updates and initial overnight observations will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$98Дата завершення
Sep 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including outputs aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, indicate a minimum temperature near 25–26°C for Shenzhen on September 17 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. This consensus drives the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 26°C and nearby thresholds, as traders weigh small differences in ensemble runs for overnight radiative cooling under easterly flow and moderate humidity. Subtropical high pressure and typical late-summer sea-surface temperatures support limited diurnal range, consistent with September climatology where average lows hover near 24°C. New model updates and initial overnight observations will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$98Дата завершення
Sep 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including outputs aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, indicate a minimum temperature near 25–26°C for Shenzhen on September 17 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. This consensus drives the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 26°C and nearby thresholds, as traders weigh small differences in ensemble runs for overnight radiative cooling under easterly flow and moderate humidity. Subtropical high pressure and typical late-summer sea-surface temperatures support limited diurnal range, consistent with September climatology where average lows hover near 24°C. New model updates and initial overnight observations will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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