Forecast uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models for subtropical Taipei drives the closely matched market odds around 24–29°C minimums on August 27. Official Central Weather Administration guidance and ensemble consensus project typical late-summer conditions under a monsoon trough or weak ridge, with overnight lows near 26°C amid high humidity, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers that can enhance or suppress radiative cooling. Key differentiators include the timing and intensity of afternoon convection, which may trap heat or allow clearer nocturnal skies, plus urban heat-island effects and light wind regimes that limit mixing. Historical August climatology shows mean minima near 26°C with modest day-to-day variability, leaving resolution sensitive to the next model runs and any late adjustments in steering patterns.