The Virginia Supreme Court’s May 8, 2026 ruling invalidated the narrowly approved constitutional amendment and associated Democratic-drawn map, citing procedural violations of the state constitution’s intervening-election requirement. Appeals to the U.S. Supreme Court were declined, leaving the 2021 court-drawn districts in place. With the August 4 primaries already conducted under the existing lines and the November 3 general election approaching, no legislative or judicial pathway remains open to implement a new congressional map in time. Traders assign 96.2% probability to “No” because the legal barrier is settled and mid-decade redistricting outside decennial cycles requires voter-approved constitutional change that courts have now blocked. Remote contingencies, such as an unforeseen emergency session producing a new amendment before Election Day, remain possible but face prohibitive procedural and timing hurdles.