Anthropic’s September 22 announcement of Claude Opus 5.5, which explicitly stated that Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 would follow in the coming weeks, is the main catalyst pushing market-implied odds toward a cluster of late-September and early-October dates. With Sonnet 5 still the current mid-tier model and no 5.5 identifier, pricing, or system card yet listed in official documentation as of September 23, traders see elevated near-term probability for an imminent drop while assigning meaningful weight to early October windows consistent with Anthropic’s historical cadence between flagship and mid-tier releases. The “on or prior to September 24” outcome at 46.5% reflects uncertainty around how quickly the lab can finalize and ship the follow-on model after the recent Opus update.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNext Claude Sonnet released on...?
Next Claude Sonnet released on...?
On or prior to September 24 46%
September 27 26%
October 3 26%
October 15 26%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 24, 2026
On or prior to September 24
46%
September 25
14%
September 26
14%
September 27
26%
September 28
13%
September 29
14%
September 30
14%
October 1
13%
October 2
21%
October 3
26%
October 4
26%
October 5
14%
October 6
14%
October 7
14%
October 8
26%
October 9
14%
October 10
13%
October 11
26%
October 12
13%
October 13
21%
October 14
14%
October 15
26%
No release by October 15
14%
On or prior to September 24 46%
September 27 26%
October 3 26%
October 15 26%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 24, 2026
On or prior to September 24
$0 Обс.
46%
September 25
$0 Обс.
14%
September 26
$0 Обс.
14%
September 27
$0 Обс.
26%
September 28
$0 Обс.
13%
September 29
$0 Обс.
14%
September 30
$0 Обс.
14%
October 1
$0 Обс.
13%
October 2
$0 Обс.
21%
October 3
$0 Обс.
26%
October 4
$0 Обс.
26%
October 5
$0 Обс.
14%
October 6
$0 Обс.
14%
October 7
$0 Обс.
14%
October 8
$0 Обс.
26%
October 9
$0 Обс.
14%
October 10
$0 Обс.
13%
October 11
$0 Обс.
26%
October 12
$0 Обс.
13%
October 13
$0 Обс.
21%
October 14
$0 Обс.
14%
October 15
$0 Обс.
26%
No release by October 15
$0 Обс.
14%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s September 22 announcement of Claude Opus 5.5, which explicitly stated that Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 would follow in the coming weeks, is the main catalyst pushing market-implied odds toward a cluster of late-September and early-October dates. With Sonnet 5 still the current mid-tier model and no 5.5 identifier, pricing, or system card yet listed in official documentation as of September 23, traders see elevated near-term probability for an imminent drop while assigning meaningful weight to early October windows consistent with Anthropic’s historical cadence between flagship and mid-tier releases. The “on or prior to September 24” outcome at 46.5% reflects uncertainty around how quickly the lab can finalize and ship the follow-on model after the recent Opus update.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 24, 2026, 3:31 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Oct 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 24, 2026, 3:31 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s September 22 announcement of Claude Opus 5.5, which explicitly stated that Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 would follow in the coming weeks, is the main catalyst pushing market-implied odds toward a cluster of late-September and early-October dates. With Sonnet 5 still the current mid-tier model and no 5.5 identifier, pricing, or system card yet listed in official documentation as of September 23, traders see elevated near-term probability for an imminent drop while assigning meaningful weight to early October windows consistent with Anthropic’s historical cadence between flagship and mid-tier releases. The “on or prior to September 24” outcome at 46.5% reflects uncertainty around how quickly the lab can finalize and ship the follow-on model after the recent Opus update.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Oct 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 24, 2026, 3:31 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47de9d...Anthropic’s September 22 announcement of Claude Opus 5.5, which explicitly stated that Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 would follow in the coming weeks, is the main catalyst pushing market-implied odds toward a cluster of late-September and early-October dates. With Sonnet 5 still the current mid-tier model and no 5.5 identifier, pricing, or system card yet listed in official documentation as of September 23, traders see elevated near-term probability for an imminent drop while assigning meaningful weight to early October windows consistent with Anthropic’s historical cadence between flagship and mid-tier releases. The “on or prior to September 24” outcome at 46.5% reflects uncertainty around how quickly the lab can finalize and ship the follow-on model after the recent Opus update.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання