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icon for US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Politics·Israel

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

icon for US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Politics·Israel

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Ended: Dec 31

Ended: Dec 31

97% шанс
Polymarket

$2,344,394 Обс.

97% шанс
Polymarket

$2,344,394 Обс.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, including multiple rounds since 2025 mediated by Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, and others, have produced frameworks addressing Iran's nuclear enrichment, uranium stockpile dilution, verification measures, sanctions relief, and ceasefire extensions, including Strait of Hormuz access. These developments, combined with recent statements from US officials on reaching agreements before 2027 and Iran's engagement amid domestic and regional pressures, underpin the 95.5% trader consensus on a deal. Remaining variables such as exact enrichment timelines, IAEA access protocols, and sequencing of commitments could still delay resolution or alter outcomes if talks stall.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Обсяг
$2,344,394
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Результат запропоновано: Yes

Без оскарження

Кінцевий результат: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, including multiple rounds since 2025 mediated by Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, and others, have produced frameworks addressing Iran's nuclear enrichment, uranium stockpile dilution, verification measures, sanctions relief, and ceasefire extensions, including Strait of Hormuz access. These developments, combined with recent statements from US officials on reaching agreements before 2027 and Iran's engagement amid domestic and regional pressures, underpin the 95.5% trader consensus on a deal. Remaining variables such as exact enrichment timelines, IAEA access protocols, and sequencing of commitments could still delay resolution or alter outcomes if talks stall.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Обсяг
$2,344,394
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Результат запропоновано: Yes

Без оскарження

Кінцевий результат: Yes

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 100% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 100¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 100%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?» згенерував $2.3 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Nov 5, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?» — 100% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 100% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.