Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of $800–900 billion at 32%, reflecting the 12-month trailing total of $776 billion through February amid robust exports offset by rising imports, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Recent February data showed a $57.3 billion monthly gap—wider than January but below forecasts—driven by tariff turmoil in President Trump's second-term trade agenda, including new 100% Section 232 duties on pharmaceuticals and reciprocal trade pacts targeting subsidies and barriers. The 900B–1T outcome at 21.5% anticipates limited tariff efficacy against strong consumer demand and dollar strength, while lower brackets hinge on accelerated import curbs. Upcoming March trade figures and Q1 GDP could consolidate odds by clarifying policy impacts and growth trajectories.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$19,219 Обс.
$19,219 Обс.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
8%
500–600B
3%
600–700B
7%
700–800B
15%
800–900B
32%
900B–1T
25%
1T–1.1T
10%
1.1T+
8%
$19,219 Обс.
$19,219 Обс.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,429 Обс.
8%
500–600B
$225 Обс.
3%
600–700B
$244 Обс.
7%
700–800B
$290 Обс.
15%
800–900B
$570 Обс.
32%
900B–1T
$765 Обс.
25%
1T–1.1T
$239 Обс.
10%
1.1T+
$457 Обс.
8%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of $800–900 billion at 32%, reflecting the 12-month trailing total of $776 billion through February amid robust exports offset by rising imports, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Recent February data showed a $57.3 billion monthly gap—wider than January but below forecasts—driven by tariff turmoil in President Trump's second-term trade agenda, including new 100% Section 232 duties on pharmaceuticals and reciprocal trade pacts targeting subsidies and barriers. The 900B–1T outcome at 21.5% anticipates limited tariff efficacy against strong consumer demand and dollar strength, while lower brackets hinge on accelerated import curbs. Upcoming March trade figures and Q1 GDP could consolidate odds by clarifying policy impacts and growth trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$19,219Дата завершення
Feb 28, 2027Ринок відкрито
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of $800–900 billion at 32%, reflecting the 12-month trailing total of $776 billion through February amid robust exports offset by rising imports, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Recent February data showed a $57.3 billion monthly gap—wider than January but below forecasts—driven by tariff turmoil in President Trump's second-term trade agenda, including new 100% Section 232 duties on pharmaceuticals and reciprocal trade pacts targeting subsidies and barriers. The 900B–1T outcome at 21.5% anticipates limited tariff efficacy against strong consumer demand and dollar strength, while lower brackets hinge on accelerated import curbs. Upcoming March trade figures and Q1 GDP could consolidate odds by clarifying policy impacts and growth trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Обсяг
$19,219Дата завершення
Feb 28, 2027Ринок відкрито
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of $800–900 billion at 32%, reflecting the 12-month trailing total of $776 billion through February amid robust exports offset by rising imports, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Recent February data showed a $57.3 billion monthly gap—wider than January but below forecasts—driven by tariff turmoil in President Trump's second-term trade agenda, including new 100% Section 232 duties on pharmaceuticals and reciprocal trade pacts targeting subsidies and barriers. The 900B–1T outcome at 21.5% anticipates limited tariff efficacy against strong consumer demand and dollar strength, while lower brackets hinge on accelerated import curbs. Upcoming March trade figures and Q1 GDP could consolidate odds by clarifying policy impacts and growth trajectories.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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