**Recent monthly US goods and services trade deficits have run in the $55–60 billion range through April 2026, producing a trailing twelve-month total near $718 billion, while the full-year 2025 deficit settled at $901.5 billion.** Tariffs implemented from early 2025 have curbed certain imports and redirected flows away from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners, narrowing the goods deficit in some periods even as capital-goods imports tied to AI investment and energy price shifts have supported higher inflows. Exports of capital goods and industrial supplies have posted gains, aided by record levels in select categories. Macroeconomic drivers—including the savings-investment gap and federal budget position—continue to anchor the overall deficit near recent annual ranges, with CBO projections indicating a gradual decline as a share of GDP through 2026 amid ongoing trade adjustments. These dynamics underpin trader consensus clustering in the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion bins for the full 2026 calendar year.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$21,261 Обс.
$21,261 Обс.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
5%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
10%
800–900B
39%
900B–1T
21%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
5%
$21,261 Обс.
$21,261 Обс.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,813 Обс.
5%
500–600B
$413 Обс.
5%
600–700B
$505 Обс.
10%
700–800B
$456 Обс.
10%
800–900B
$1,008 Обс.
39%
900B–1T
$984 Обс.
21%
1T–1.1T
$447 Обс.
5%
1.1T+
$635 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.**Recent monthly US goods and services trade deficits have run in the $55–60 billion range through April 2026, producing a trailing twelve-month total near $718 billion, while the full-year 2025 deficit settled at $901.5 billion.** Tariffs implemented from early 2025 have curbed certain imports and redirected flows away from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners, narrowing the goods deficit in some periods even as capital-goods imports tied to AI investment and energy price shifts have supported higher inflows. Exports of capital goods and industrial supplies have posted gains, aided by record levels in select categories. Macroeconomic drivers—including the savings-investment gap and federal budget position—continue to anchor the overall deficit near recent annual ranges, with CBO projections indicating a gradual decline as a share of GDP through 2026 amid ongoing trade adjustments. These dynamics underpin trader consensus clustering in the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion bins for the full 2026 calendar year.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$21,261Дата завершення
Feb 28, 2027Ринок відкрито
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.**Recent monthly US goods and services trade deficits have run in the $55–60 billion range through April 2026, producing a trailing twelve-month total near $718 billion, while the full-year 2025 deficit settled at $901.5 billion.** Tariffs implemented from early 2025 have curbed certain imports and redirected flows away from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners, narrowing the goods deficit in some periods even as capital-goods imports tied to AI investment and energy price shifts have supported higher inflows. Exports of capital goods and industrial supplies have posted gains, aided by record levels in select categories. Macroeconomic drivers—including the savings-investment gap and federal budget position—continue to anchor the overall deficit near recent annual ranges, with CBO projections indicating a gradual decline as a share of GDP through 2026 amid ongoing trade adjustments. These dynamics underpin trader consensus clustering in the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion bins for the full 2026 calendar year.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Обсяг
$21,261Дата завершення
Feb 28, 2027Ринок відкрито
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent monthly US goods and services trade deficits have run in the $55–60 billion range through April 2026, producing a trailing twelve-month total near $718 billion, while the full-year 2025 deficit settled at $901.5 billion.** Tariffs implemented from early 2025 have curbed certain imports and redirected flows away from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners, narrowing the goods deficit in some periods even as capital-goods imports tied to AI investment and energy price shifts have supported higher inflows. Exports of capital goods and industrial supplies have posted gains, aided by record levels in select categories. Macroeconomic drivers—including the savings-investment gap and federal budget position—continue to anchor the overall deficit near recent annual ranges, with CBO projections indicating a gradual decline as a share of GDP through 2026 amid ongoing trade adjustments. These dynamics underpin trader consensus clustering in the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion bins for the full 2026 calendar year.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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