The Republican Party's 85% implied probability in Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District House race reflects the district's strong partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and consistent GOP general election margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, including Tom Tiffany's 64%-36% win in 2024. Incumbent Tiffany's January decision to run for governor opened the seat, but former President Trump's late-January endorsement of Republican primary frontrunner Michael Alfonso—combined with robust GOP fundraising, led by Paul Wassgren's $3.4 million and Alfonso's recent $600,000 first-quarter haul—has solidified trader consensus on a Republican hold. Democrats face a fragmented primary among candidates like Fred Clark, with weaker finances, ahead of the August 11 primaries. Statewide Democratic spring election gains offer limited carryover to this rural, conservative battleground.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWI-07 House Election Winner
WI-07 House Election Winner
$14,176 Обс.
$14,176 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
85%
Democratic Party
14%
$14,176 Обс.
$14,176 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,282 Обс.
85%
Democratic Party
$7,894 Обс.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party's 85% implied probability in Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District House race reflects the district's strong partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and consistent GOP general election margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, including Tom Tiffany's 64%-36% win in 2024. Incumbent Tiffany's January decision to run for governor opened the seat, but former President Trump's late-January endorsement of Republican primary frontrunner Michael Alfonso—combined with robust GOP fundraising, led by Paul Wassgren's $3.4 million and Alfonso's recent $600,000 first-quarter haul—has solidified trader consensus on a Republican hold. Democrats face a fragmented primary among candidates like Fred Clark, with weaker finances, ahead of the August 11 primaries. Statewide Democratic spring election gains offer limited carryover to this rural, conservative battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Обсяг
$14,176Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party's 85% implied probability in Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District House race reflects the district's strong partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and consistent GOP general election margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, including Tom Tiffany's 64%-36% win in 2024. Incumbent Tiffany's January decision to run for governor opened the seat, but former President Trump's late-January endorsement of Republican primary frontrunner Michael Alfonso—combined with robust GOP fundraising, led by Paul Wassgren's $3.4 million and Alfonso's recent $600,000 first-quarter haul—has solidified trader consensus on a Republican hold. Democrats face a fragmented primary among candidates like Fred Clark, with weaker finances, ahead of the August 11 primaries. Statewide Democratic spring election gains offer limited carryover to this rural, conservative battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$14,176Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican Party's 85% implied probability in Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District House race reflects the district's strong partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11 and consistent GOP general election margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, including Tom Tiffany's 64%-36% win in 2024. Incumbent Tiffany's January decision to run for governor opened the seat, but former President Trump's late-January endorsement of Republican primary frontrunner Michael Alfonso—combined with robust GOP fundraising, led by Paul Wassgren's $3.4 million and Alfonso's recent $600,000 first-quarter haul—has solidified trader consensus on a Republican hold. Democrats face a fragmented primary among candidates like Fred Clark, with weaker finances, ahead of the August 11 primaries. Statewide Democratic spring election gains offer limited carryover to this rural, conservative battleground.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання