Xi Jinping has maintained firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through ongoing anti-corruption purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior Vice Chairman General Zhang Youxia and other top military figures. These moves, confirmed via official channels, have produced no verified resistance, violence, or factional challenges, reinforcing the view that leadership structures remain stable despite opacity. Traders assign "No" a 97% implied probability because historical patterns show purges strengthening centralized authority rather than inviting coups, with no credible reports of plots succeeding or even materializing in recent years. Realistic shifts before 2027 could still arise from acute economic crises, leadership health events, or major external shocks that erode elite cohesion, though such triggers remain speculative given current institutional safeguards.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtChina coup attempt before 2027?
China coup attempt before 2027?
$153,494 KL.
$153,494 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$153,494 KL.
$153,494 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping has maintained firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through ongoing anti-corruption purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior Vice Chairman General Zhang Youxia and other top military figures. These moves, confirmed via official channels, have produced no verified resistance, violence, or factional challenges, reinforcing the view that leadership structures remain stable despite opacity. Traders assign "No" a 97% implied probability because historical patterns show purges strengthening centralized authority rather than inviting coups, with no credible reports of plots succeeding or even materializing in recent years. Realistic shifts before 2027 could still arise from acute economic crises, leadership health events, or major external shocks that erode elite cohesion, though such triggers remain speculative given current institutional safeguards.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Khối lượng
$153,494Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping has maintained firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through ongoing anti-corruption purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior Vice Chairman General Zhang Youxia and other top military figures. These moves, confirmed via official channels, have produced no verified resistance, violence, or factional challenges, reinforcing the view that leadership structures remain stable despite opacity. Traders assign "No" a 97% implied probability because historical patterns show purges strengthening centralized authority rather than inviting coups, with no credible reports of plots succeeding or even materializing in recent years. Realistic shifts before 2027 could still arise from acute economic crises, leadership health events, or major external shocks that erode elite cohesion, though such triggers remain speculative given current institutional safeguards.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$153,494Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping has maintained firm control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through ongoing anti-corruption purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior Vice Chairman General Zhang Youxia and other top military figures. These moves, confirmed via official channels, have produced no verified resistance, violence, or factional challenges, reinforcing the view that leadership structures remain stable despite opacity. Traders assign "No" a 97% implied probability because historical patterns show purges strengthening centralized authority rather than inviting coups, with no credible reports of plots succeeding or even materializing in recent years. Realistic shifts before 2027 could still arise from acute economic crises, leadership health events, or major external shocks that erode elite cohesion, though such triggers remain speculative given current institutional safeguards.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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