Florida's 9th congressional district carries an R+8 partisan voting index, creating structural headwinds for Democratic incumbent Darren Soto despite his 2024 performance exceeding the national ticket. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, reflecting the district's central Florida composition and recent map adjustments that strengthened GOP positioning. With the Republican primary set for August 18, 2026, early nominee dynamics and fundraising have reinforced trader expectations of a general-election Republican hold. Soto's reelection bid faces coordinated opposition targeting, while no major late developments have shifted the underlying electoral math in the 30 days prior to August 1. These factors align with the current 76.5% Republican implied probability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFL-09 House Election Winner
FL-09 House Election Winner
$17,242 KL.
$17,242 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
77%
Democratic Party
24%
$17,242 KL.
$17,242 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$10,047 KL.
77%
Democratic Party
$7,194 KL.
24%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 9th congressional district carries an R+8 partisan voting index, creating structural headwinds for Democratic incumbent Darren Soto despite his 2024 performance exceeding the national ticket. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, reflecting the district's central Florida composition and recent map adjustments that strengthened GOP positioning. With the Republican primary set for August 18, 2026, early nominee dynamics and fundraising have reinforced trader expectations of a general-election Republican hold. Soto's reelection bid faces coordinated opposition targeting, while no major late developments have shifted the underlying electoral math in the 30 days prior to August 1. These factors align with the current 76.5% Republican implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Khối lượng
$17,242Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 9th congressional district carries an R+8 partisan voting index, creating structural headwinds for Democratic incumbent Darren Soto despite his 2024 performance exceeding the national ticket. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, reflecting the district's central Florida composition and recent map adjustments that strengthened GOP positioning. With the Republican primary set for August 18, 2026, early nominee dynamics and fundraising have reinforced trader expectations of a general-election Republican hold. Soto's reelection bid faces coordinated opposition targeting, while no major late developments have shifted the underlying electoral math in the 30 days prior to August 1. These factors align with the current 76.5% Republican implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$17,242Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 9th congressional district carries an R+8 partisan voting index, creating structural headwinds for Democratic incumbent Darren Soto despite his 2024 performance exceeding the national ticket. Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican, reflecting the district's central Florida composition and recent map adjustments that strengthened GOP positioning. With the Republican primary set for August 18, 2026, early nominee dynamics and fundraising have reinforced trader expectations of a general-election Republican hold. Soto's reelection bid faces coordinated opposition targeting, while no major late developments have shifted the underlying electoral math in the 30 days prior to August 1. These factors align with the current 76.5% Republican implied probability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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