Recent model consensus from meteorological agencies points to a highest temperature of 30–32°C in Beijing on September 16, supporting the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Clear skies, light southerly winds, and subsidence under a high-pressure ridge are promoting strong daytime insolation across the North China Plain, with minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate heating. Historical September averages near 26°C and the 34.4°C record from 2000 provide context, yet current conditions lack the anomalous warmth seen in past extremes. Minor differences among ensemble runs—driven by subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any weak frontal approach—account for the spread between 30°C and 32°C implied probabilities, with updated guidance expected before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Beijing on September 16?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 16?
31°C 30%
30°C 20%
32°C 19%
29°C 11%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 16, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
4%
29°C
11%
30°C
21%
31°C
31%
32°C
26%
33°C
7%
34°C
8%
35°C
7%
36°C
10%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 30%
30°C 20%
32°C 19%
29°C 11%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 16, 2026
27°C or below
$0 KL.
<1%
28°C
$0 KL.
4%
29°C
$6 KL.
11%
30°C
$155 KL.
21%
31°C
$17 KL.
31%
32°C
$15 KL.
26%
33°C
$5 KL.
7%
34°C
$0 KL.
8%
35°C
$0 KL.
7%
36°C
$0 KL.
10%
37°C or higher
$0 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from meteorological agencies points to a highest temperature of 30–32°C in Beijing on September 16, supporting the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Clear skies, light southerly winds, and subsidence under a high-pressure ridge are promoting strong daytime insolation across the North China Plain, with minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate heating. Historical September averages near 26°C and the 34.4°C record from 2000 provide context, yet current conditions lack the anomalous warmth seen in past extremes. Minor differences among ensemble runs—driven by subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any weak frontal approach—account for the spread between 30°C and 32°C implied probabilities, with updated guidance expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Khối lượng
$199Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from meteorological agencies points to a highest temperature of 30–32°C in Beijing on September 16, supporting the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Clear skies, light southerly winds, and subsidence under a high-pressure ridge are promoting strong daytime insolation across the North China Plain, with minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate heating. Historical September averages near 26°C and the 34.4°C record from 2000 provide context, yet current conditions lack the anomalous warmth seen in past extremes. Minor differences among ensemble runs—driven by subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any weak frontal approach—account for the spread between 30°C and 32°C implied probabilities, with updated guidance expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$199Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from meteorological agencies points to a highest temperature of 30–32°C in Beijing on September 16, supporting the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Clear skies, light southerly winds, and subsidence under a high-pressure ridge are promoting strong daytime insolation across the North China Plain, with minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate heating. Historical September averages near 26°C and the 34.4°C record from 2000 provide context, yet current conditions lack the anomalous warmth seen in past extremes. Minor differences among ensemble runs—driven by subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any weak frontal approach—account for the spread between 30°C and 32°C implied probabilities, with updated guidance expected before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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