Recent forecast consensus from Météo-France and European models points to a moderating high-pressure regime over northern France, with partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow limiting daytime heating after an intense mid-August heatwave. This setup supports a daily maximum near 29–31 °C at Paris-Montsouris or Orly, consistent with the market’s heaviest implied probabilities on those three outcomes. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the 30 °C mark because boundary-layer moisture and residual cloud cover introduce minor uncertainty in peak insolation. Historical August climatology (average high ~25 °C) underscores how the current pattern remains elevated yet below the extreme thresholds that would shift odds toward 33 °C or higher. Updated model runs and the next official Météo-France bulletin on the morning of the 16th are the key near-term catalysts likely to refine these probabilities before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Paris on August 16?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 16?
30°C 44%
31°C 31%
29°C 17%
32°C 6.8%
MỚI
$10,006 KL.
MỚI
$10,006 KL.
Aug 16, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
4%
29°C
17%
30°C
44%
31°C
31%
32°C
7%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 44%
31°C 31%
29°C 17%
32°C 6.8%
MỚI
$10,006 KL.
MỚI
$10,006 KL.
Aug 16, 2026
25°C or below
$206 KL.
<1%
26°C
$366 KL.
<1%
27°C
$470 KL.
2%
28°C
$951 KL.
4%
29°C
$1,331 KL.
17%
30°C
$2,352 KL.
44%
31°C
$1,965 KL.
31%
32°C
$1,171 KL.
7%
33°C
$635 KL.
1%
34°C
$326 KL.
<1%
35°C or higher
$296 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from Météo-France and European models points to a moderating high-pressure regime over northern France, with partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow limiting daytime heating after an intense mid-August heatwave. This setup supports a daily maximum near 29–31 °C at Paris-Montsouris or Orly, consistent with the market’s heaviest implied probabilities on those three outcomes. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the 30 °C mark because boundary-layer moisture and residual cloud cover introduce minor uncertainty in peak insolation. Historical August climatology (average high ~25 °C) underscores how the current pattern remains elevated yet below the extreme thresholds that would shift odds toward 33 °C or higher. Updated model runs and the next official Météo-France bulletin on the morning of the 16th are the key near-term catalysts likely to refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Khối lượng
$10,006Ngày kết thúc
Aug 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from Météo-France and European models points to a moderating high-pressure regime over northern France, with partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow limiting daytime heating after an intense mid-August heatwave. This setup supports a daily maximum near 29–31 °C at Paris-Montsouris or Orly, consistent with the market’s heaviest implied probabilities on those three outcomes. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the 30 °C mark because boundary-layer moisture and residual cloud cover introduce minor uncertainty in peak insolation. Historical August climatology (average high ~25 °C) underscores how the current pattern remains elevated yet below the extreme thresholds that would shift odds toward 33 °C or higher. Updated model runs and the next official Météo-France bulletin on the morning of the 16th are the key near-term catalysts likely to refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$10,006Ngày kết thúc
Aug 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from Météo-France and European models points to a moderating high-pressure regime over northern France, with partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow limiting daytime heating after an intense mid-August heatwave. This setup supports a daily maximum near 29–31 °C at Paris-Montsouris or Orly, consistent with the market’s heaviest implied probabilities on those three outcomes. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the 30 °C mark because boundary-layer moisture and residual cloud cover introduce minor uncertainty in peak insolation. Historical August climatology (average high ~25 °C) underscores how the current pattern remains elevated yet below the extreme thresholds that would shift odds toward 33 °C or higher. Updated model runs and the next official Météo-France bulletin on the morning of the 16th are the key near-term catalysts likely to refine these probabilities before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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