Short-term forecast consensus from models and the Hong Kong Observatory points to an overnight minimum near 28°C on August 17, driving the market’s overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that outcome. Typical August climatology features minimum temperatures of 26–28°C, reinforced by the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal warmth driven by background climate trends and current ENSO conditions. Persistent high humidity, cloud cover from showers and thunderstorms, and urban heat-island effects limit nighttime radiative cooling and keep temperatures from dropping further. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the 28°C consensus include clearer skies allowing enhanced radiative cooling, a stronger monsoon surge advecting cooler air, or shifts in rainfall timing that alter local heat retention.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?
28°C 99.5%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
$55,387 KL.
$55,387 KL.
Aug 17, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 99.5%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
$55,387 KL.
$55,387 KL.
Aug 17, 2026
23°C or below
$503 KL.
<1%
24°C
$1,056 KL.
<1%
25°C
$7,802 KL.
<1%
26°C
$8,249 KL.
<1%
27°C
$7,343 KL.
<1%
28°C
$16,965 KL.
100%
29°C
$7,953 KL.
<1%
30°C
$3,611 KL.
<1%
31°C
$501 KL.
<1%
32°C
$491 KL.
<1%
33°C or higher
$941 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Short-term forecast consensus from models and the Hong Kong Observatory points to an overnight minimum near 28°C on August 17, driving the market’s overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that outcome. Typical August climatology features minimum temperatures of 26–28°C, reinforced by the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal warmth driven by background climate trends and current ENSO conditions. Persistent high humidity, cloud cover from showers and thunderstorms, and urban heat-island effects limit nighttime radiative cooling and keep temperatures from dropping further. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the 28°C consensus include clearer skies allowing enhanced radiative cooling, a stronger monsoon surge advecting cooler air, or shifts in rainfall timing that alter local heat retention.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Khối lượng
$55,387Ngày kết thúc
Aug 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Short-term forecast consensus from models and the Hong Kong Observatory points to an overnight minimum near 28°C on August 17, driving the market’s overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that outcome. Typical August climatology features minimum temperatures of 26–28°C, reinforced by the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal warmth driven by background climate trends and current ENSO conditions. Persistent high humidity, cloud cover from showers and thunderstorms, and urban heat-island effects limit nighttime radiative cooling and keep temperatures from dropping further. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the 28°C consensus include clearer skies allowing enhanced radiative cooling, a stronger monsoon surge advecting cooler air, or shifts in rainfall timing that alter local heat retention.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$55,387Ngày kết thúc
Aug 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast consensus from models and the Hong Kong Observatory points to an overnight minimum near 28°C on August 17, driving the market’s overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that outcome. Typical August climatology features minimum temperatures of 26–28°C, reinforced by the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal warmth driven by background climate trends and current ENSO conditions. Persistent high humidity, cloud cover from showers and thunderstorms, and urban heat-island effects limit nighttime radiative cooling and keep temperatures from dropping further. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the 28°C consensus include clearer skies allowing enhanced radiative cooling, a stronger monsoon surge advecting cooler air, or shifts in rainfall timing that alter local heat retention.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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