Recent forecast guidance from meteorological agencies indicates a likely daily maximum near 31–32°C for Beijing on August 19, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, partial cloud cover limiting peak insolation, and typical late-summer humidity that caps daytime heating. Ensemble model spreads show some runs reaching 33°C under clearer skies or stronger subsidence, while others stay at 31°C with increased moisture and showers; these uncertainties explain the near-even market weighting between those two outcomes. Historical climatology for mid-August places average highs around 30–31°C, providing context for why traders view 34°C or higher as low-probability absent an anomalous ridge. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Beijing on August 19?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 19?
32°C 34%
33°C 29%
31°C 18%
34°C 10%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 19, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
18%
32°C
34%
33°C
29%
34°C
10%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 34%
33°C 29%
31°C 18%
34°C 10%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 19, 2026
27°C or below
$117 KL.
<1%
28°C
$24 KL.
1%
29°C
$9 KL.
1%
30°C
$9 KL.
4%
31°C
$37 KL.
18%
32°C
$200 KL.
34%
33°C
$1,052 KL.
29%
34°C
$99 KL.
10%
35°C
$30 KL.
3%
36°C
$36 KL.
1%
37°C or higher
$11 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from meteorological agencies indicates a likely daily maximum near 31–32°C for Beijing on August 19, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, partial cloud cover limiting peak insolation, and typical late-summer humidity that caps daytime heating. Ensemble model spreads show some runs reaching 33°C under clearer skies or stronger subsidence, while others stay at 31°C with increased moisture and showers; these uncertainties explain the near-even market weighting between those two outcomes. Historical climatology for mid-August places average highs around 30–31°C, providing context for why traders view 34°C or higher as low-probability absent an anomalous ridge. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,623Ngày kết thúc
Aug 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from meteorological agencies indicates a likely daily maximum near 31–32°C for Beijing on August 19, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, partial cloud cover limiting peak insolation, and typical late-summer humidity that caps daytime heating. Ensemble model spreads show some runs reaching 33°C under clearer skies or stronger subsidence, while others stay at 31°C with increased moisture and showers; these uncertainties explain the near-even market weighting between those two outcomes. Historical climatology for mid-August places average highs around 30–31°C, providing context for why traders view 34°C or higher as low-probability absent an anomalous ridge. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$1,623Ngày kết thúc
Aug 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from meteorological agencies indicates a likely daily maximum near 31–32°C for Beijing on August 19, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, partial cloud cover limiting peak insolation, and typical late-summer humidity that caps daytime heating. Ensemble model spreads show some runs reaching 33°C under clearer skies or stronger subsidence, while others stay at 31°C with increased moisture and showers; these uncertainties explain the near-even market weighting between those two outcomes. Historical climatology for mid-August places average highs around 30–31°C, providing context for why traders view 34°C or higher as low-probability absent an anomalous ridge. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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