Latest ensemble forecasts from European and global models point to a maximum temperature in Warsaw on August 19 most likely falling in the 20–22°C range, aligning with the market’s highest implied probabilities clustered around those outcomes. A passing frontal system and increased cloud cover are expected to limit daytime heating, while light showers could further suppress peaks compared with typical late-August averages near 23°C. Key variables include the precise timing of any clearing skies, wind direction from the northwest, and soil moisture from prior rainfall, all of which introduce modest uncertainty in model guidance. Updated runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution as the event nears resolution.