The strongly Democratic lean of Illinois’s 2nd congressional district, which covers Chicago’s far South Side and southern suburbs plus portions of Will, Kankakee, and surrounding counties, underpins the current 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Robin Kelly’s retirement to pursue a U.S. Senate bid created an open seat, yet Donna Miller’s March 17 primary win over Jesse Jackson Jr. and nine other Democrats left the party nominee in a position to carry the district’s established voting patterns into the fall. Republican nominee Mike Noack and independent Ashley Banks face structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid Democratic by major race analysts. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant turnout shift, or national political realignment remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin, though historical results and district composition continue to anchor expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIL-02 House Election Winner
IL-02 House Election Winner
$32,203 KL.
$32,203 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$32,203 KL.
$32,203 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,696 KL.
94%
Republican Party
$18,507 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strongly Democratic lean of Illinois’s 2nd congressional district, which covers Chicago’s far South Side and southern suburbs plus portions of Will, Kankakee, and surrounding counties, underpins the current 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Robin Kelly’s retirement to pursue a U.S. Senate bid created an open seat, yet Donna Miller’s March 17 primary win over Jesse Jackson Jr. and nine other Democrats left the party nominee in a position to carry the district’s established voting patterns into the fall. Republican nominee Mike Noack and independent Ashley Banks face structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid Democratic by major race analysts. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant turnout shift, or national political realignment remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin, though historical results and district composition continue to anchor expectations.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$32,203Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strongly Democratic lean of Illinois’s 2nd congressional district, which covers Chicago’s far South Side and southern suburbs plus portions of Will, Kankakee, and surrounding counties, underpins the current 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Robin Kelly’s retirement to pursue a U.S. Senate bid created an open seat, yet Donna Miller’s March 17 primary win over Jesse Jackson Jr. and nine other Democrats left the party nominee in a position to carry the district’s established voting patterns into the fall. Republican nominee Mike Noack and independent Ashley Banks face structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid Democratic by major race analysts. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant turnout shift, or national political realignment remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin, though historical results and district composition continue to anchor expectations.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$32,203Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strongly Democratic lean of Illinois’s 2nd congressional district, which covers Chicago’s far South Side and southern suburbs plus portions of Will, Kankakee, and surrounding counties, underpins the current 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Robin Kelly’s retirement to pursue a U.S. Senate bid created an open seat, yet Donna Miller’s March 17 primary win over Jesse Jackson Jr. and nine other Democrats left the party nominee in a position to carry the district’s established voting patterns into the fall. Republican nominee Mike Noack and independent Ashley Banks face structural headwinds in a seat rated Solid Democratic by major race analysts. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant turnout shift, or national political realignment remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin, though historical results and district composition continue to anchor expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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