The Illinois 2nd congressional district's strong Democratic tilt, rooted in its southeast Chicago and south suburban voter base, underpins the overwhelming market consensus favoring a Democratic general election winner. Robin Kelly's decision not to seek reelection while pursuing a Senate bid created an open seat, yet the district's consistent performance—evidenced by her 2024 margin—keeps the race rated Safe or Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. The March 2026 Democratic primary has already produced a nominee in a low-competition environment, while Republican recruitment and fundraising remain minimal heading into the November 2026 general. A commanding Democratic hold could only face realistic pressure from an unprecedented national Republican surge that flips the seat's underlying partisan lean, a major scandal or primary upset involving the Democratic candidate, or an extraordinary drop in Democratic turnout not seen in recent cycles.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIL-02 House Election Winner
IL-02 House Election Winner
$32,964 KL.
$32,964 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
2%
$32,964 KL.
$32,964 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,067 KL.
94%
Republican Party
$18,897 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 2nd congressional district's strong Democratic tilt, rooted in its southeast Chicago and south suburban voter base, underpins the overwhelming market consensus favoring a Democratic general election winner. Robin Kelly's decision not to seek reelection while pursuing a Senate bid created an open seat, yet the district's consistent performance—evidenced by her 2024 margin—keeps the race rated Safe or Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. The March 2026 Democratic primary has already produced a nominee in a low-competition environment, while Republican recruitment and fundraising remain minimal heading into the November 2026 general. A commanding Democratic hold could only face realistic pressure from an unprecedented national Republican surge that flips the seat's underlying partisan lean, a major scandal or primary upset involving the Democratic candidate, or an extraordinary drop in Democratic turnout not seen in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$32,964Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 2nd congressional district's strong Democratic tilt, rooted in its southeast Chicago and south suburban voter base, underpins the overwhelming market consensus favoring a Democratic general election winner. Robin Kelly's decision not to seek reelection while pursuing a Senate bid created an open seat, yet the district's consistent performance—evidenced by her 2024 margin—keeps the race rated Safe or Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. The March 2026 Democratic primary has already produced a nominee in a low-competition environment, while Republican recruitment and fundraising remain minimal heading into the November 2026 general. A commanding Democratic hold could only face realistic pressure from an unprecedented national Republican surge that flips the seat's underlying partisan lean, a major scandal or primary upset involving the Democratic candidate, or an extraordinary drop in Democratic turnout not seen in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$32,964Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 2nd congressional district's strong Democratic tilt, rooted in its southeast Chicago and south suburban voter base, underpins the overwhelming market consensus favoring a Democratic general election winner. Robin Kelly's decision not to seek reelection while pursuing a Senate bid created an open seat, yet the district's consistent performance—evidenced by her 2024 margin—keeps the race rated Safe or Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. The March 2026 Democratic primary has already produced a nominee in a low-competition environment, while Republican recruitment and fundraising remain minimal heading into the November 2026 general. A commanding Democratic hold could only face realistic pressure from an unprecedented national Republican surge that flips the seat's underlying partisan lean, a major scandal or primary upset involving the Democratic candidate, or an extraordinary drop in Democratic turnout not seen in recent cycles.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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