The Illinois 2nd congressional district remains a strong Democratic hold following the March 2026 primary, where Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller secured the nomination in a crowded field that included former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. The open seat, vacated by longtime incumbent Robin Kelly, has historically delivered Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles, reflecting the district's demographics across southeast Chicago and its southern suburbs. Republican nominee Mike Noack faces structural barriers in this environment, consistent with the current trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic implied probability. General election dynamics on November 3 could shift only in the event of an unforeseen scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a broader national Republican surge that overcomes the district's established partisan lean.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIL-02 House Election Winner
IL-02 House Election Winner
$32,202 KL.
$32,202 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
5%
$32,202 KL.
$32,202 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,695 KL.
94%
Republican Party
$18,507 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 2nd congressional district remains a strong Democratic hold following the March 2026 primary, where Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller secured the nomination in a crowded field that included former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. The open seat, vacated by longtime incumbent Robin Kelly, has historically delivered Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles, reflecting the district's demographics across southeast Chicago and its southern suburbs. Republican nominee Mike Noack faces structural barriers in this environment, consistent with the current trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic implied probability. General election dynamics on November 3 could shift only in the event of an unforeseen scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a broader national Republican surge that overcomes the district's established partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$32,202Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 2nd congressional district remains a strong Democratic hold following the March 2026 primary, where Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller secured the nomination in a crowded field that included former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. The open seat, vacated by longtime incumbent Robin Kelly, has historically delivered Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles, reflecting the district's demographics across southeast Chicago and its southern suburbs. Republican nominee Mike Noack faces structural barriers in this environment, consistent with the current trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic implied probability. General election dynamics on November 3 could shift only in the event of an unforeseen scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a broader national Republican surge that overcomes the district's established partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$32,202Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 2nd congressional district remains a strong Democratic hold following the March 2026 primary, where Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller secured the nomination in a crowded field that included former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. The open seat, vacated by longtime incumbent Robin Kelly, has historically delivered Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles, reflecting the district's demographics across southeast Chicago and its southern suburbs. Republican nominee Mike Noack faces structural barriers in this environment, consistent with the current trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic implied probability. General election dynamics on November 3 could shift only in the event of an unforeseen scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a broader national Republican surge that overcomes the district's established partisan lean.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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