Incumbent Sean Casten (D) holds a commanding position in the IL-06 House race after decisively winning the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary against Joseph Ruzevich, setting up a rematch with Republican Niki Conforti, who prevailed in the GOP primary. The district's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, combined with Casten's 2024 victory margin of eight points and substantial fundraising edge—recently disclosing over $2 million raised—underpin trader consensus implying 93% odds for a Democratic win on November 3. This reflects the partisan lean in southern Cook and eastern DuPage counties favoring incumbents. A Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, major Casten scandal, or Conforti fundraising surge, though no such catalysts have emerged recently.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIL-06 House Election Winner
IL-06 House Election Winner
$23,114 KL.
$23,114 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
$23,114 KL.
$23,114 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$7,461 KL.
93%
Republican Party
$15,653 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Sean Casten (D) holds a commanding position in the IL-06 House race after decisively winning the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary against Joseph Ruzevich, setting up a rematch with Republican Niki Conforti, who prevailed in the GOP primary. The district's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, combined with Casten's 2024 victory margin of eight points and substantial fundraising edge—recently disclosing over $2 million raised—underpin trader consensus implying 93% odds for a Democratic win on November 3. This reflects the partisan lean in southern Cook and eastern DuPage counties favoring incumbents. A Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, major Casten scandal, or Conforti fundraising surge, though no such catalysts have emerged recently.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Khối lượng
$23,114Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Sean Casten (D) holds a commanding position in the IL-06 House race after decisively winning the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary against Joseph Ruzevich, setting up a rematch with Republican Niki Conforti, who prevailed in the GOP primary. The district's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, combined with Casten's 2024 victory margin of eight points and substantial fundraising edge—recently disclosing over $2 million raised—underpin trader consensus implying 93% odds for a Democratic win on November 3. This reflects the partisan lean in southern Cook and eastern DuPage counties favoring incumbents. A Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, major Casten scandal, or Conforti fundraising surge, though no such catalysts have emerged recently.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$23,114Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sean Casten (D) holds a commanding position in the IL-06 House race after decisively winning the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary against Joseph Ruzevich, setting up a rematch with Republican Niki Conforti, who prevailed in the GOP primary. The district's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, combined with Casten's 2024 victory margin of eight points and substantial fundraising edge—recently disclosing over $2 million raised—underpin trader consensus implying 93% odds for a Democratic win on November 3. This reflects the partisan lean in southern Cook and eastern DuPage counties favoring incumbents. A Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, major Casten scandal, or Conforti fundraising surge, though no such catalysts have emerged recently.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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