Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured the Democratic nomination for Illinois’s 6th congressional district with 75.8 percent of the primary vote on March 17, 2026, facing Republican nominee Niki Conforti in the November general election. Forecasters rate the southwest Chicago suburban seat as solidly or safely Democratic, consistent with its performance in recent cycles. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.7 percent implied probability of holding the seat, reflecting the district’s partisan composition, Casten’s incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition, and the absence of competitive primary challenges that could signal vulnerability. A shift in national political conditions, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout could still alter the outcome before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIL-06 House Election Winner
IL-06 House Election Winner
$32,052 KL.
$32,052 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$32,052 KL.
$32,052 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,925 KL.
95%
Republican Party
$20,127 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured the Democratic nomination for Illinois’s 6th congressional district with 75.8 percent of the primary vote on March 17, 2026, facing Republican nominee Niki Conforti in the November general election. Forecasters rate the southwest Chicago suburban seat as solidly or safely Democratic, consistent with its performance in recent cycles. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.7 percent implied probability of holding the seat, reflecting the district’s partisan composition, Casten’s incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition, and the absence of competitive primary challenges that could signal vulnerability. A shift in national political conditions, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Khối lượng
$32,052Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured the Democratic nomination for Illinois’s 6th congressional district with 75.8 percent of the primary vote on March 17, 2026, facing Republican nominee Niki Conforti in the November general election. Forecasters rate the southwest Chicago suburban seat as solidly or safely Democratic, consistent with its performance in recent cycles. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.7 percent implied probability of holding the seat, reflecting the district’s partisan composition, Casten’s incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition, and the absence of competitive primary challenges that could signal vulnerability. A shift in national political conditions, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$32,052Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured the Democratic nomination for Illinois’s 6th congressional district with 75.8 percent of the primary vote on March 17, 2026, facing Republican nominee Niki Conforti in the November general election. Forecasters rate the southwest Chicago suburban seat as solidly or safely Democratic, consistent with its performance in recent cycles. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.7 percent implied probability of holding the seat, reflecting the district’s partisan composition, Casten’s incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition, and the absence of competitive primary challenges that could signal vulnerability. A shift in national political conditions, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout could still alter the outcome before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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