Recent forecast models from agencies including NOAA and European centers point to a mild overnight period in Amsterdam on September 4, with southwesterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and showers keeping the minimum temperature in the 15–18°C range. This aligns with historical September averages near 12°C but reflects current warm advection ahead of a weakening frontal system. Trader consensus, reflected in the elevated 43.5% implied probability for a minimum of 22°C or higher, appears driven by the potential for stronger warm-air advection or slower cooling under overcast skies, while lower-probability outcomes below 15°C account for greater radiational cooling if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated model runs and official observations from Schiphol will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 4?
22°C or higher 86%
19°C 49%
16°C 27%
17°C 27%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
14%
13°C
16%
14°C
14%
15°C
5%
16°C
27%
17°C
27%
18°C
27%
19°C
49%
20°C
16%
21°C
8%
22°C or higher
86%
22°C or higher 86%
19°C 49%
16°C 27%
17°C 27%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
$0 KL.
14%
13°C
$0 KL.
16%
14°C
$0 KL.
14%
15°C
$43 KL.
5%
16°C
$0 KL.
27%
17°C
$0 KL.
27%
18°C
$0 KL.
27%
19°C
$0 KL.
49%
20°C
$0 KL.
16%
21°C
$0 KL.
8%
22°C or higher
$0 KL.
86%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies including NOAA and European centers point to a mild overnight period in Amsterdam on September 4, with southwesterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and showers keeping the minimum temperature in the 15–18°C range. This aligns with historical September averages near 12°C but reflects current warm advection ahead of a weakening frontal system. Trader consensus, reflected in the elevated 43.5% implied probability for a minimum of 22°C or higher, appears driven by the potential for stronger warm-air advection or slower cooling under overcast skies, while lower-probability outcomes below 15°C account for greater radiational cooling if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated model runs and official observations from Schiphol will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Khối lượng
$43Ngày kết thúc
Sep 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies including NOAA and European centers point to a mild overnight period in Amsterdam on September 4, with southwesterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and showers keeping the minimum temperature in the 15–18°C range. This aligns with historical September averages near 12°C but reflects current warm advection ahead of a weakening frontal system. Trader consensus, reflected in the elevated 43.5% implied probability for a minimum of 22°C or higher, appears driven by the potential for stronger warm-air advection or slower cooling under overcast skies, while lower-probability outcomes below 15°C account for greater radiational cooling if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated model runs and official observations from Schiphol will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$43Ngày kết thúc
Sep 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies including NOAA and European centers point to a mild overnight period in Amsterdam on September 4, with southwesterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and showers keeping the minimum temperature in the 15–18°C range. This aligns with historical September averages near 12°C but reflects current warm advection ahead of a weakening frontal system. Trader consensus, reflected in the elevated 43.5% implied probability for a minimum of 22°C or higher, appears driven by the potential for stronger warm-air advection or slower cooling under overcast skies, while lower-probability outcomes below 15°C account for greater radiational cooling if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated model runs and official observations from Schiphol will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp