Persistent southerly flow and high pressure under the current pattern have kept Austin overnight lows in the mid-70s through late August, with National Weather Service guidance showing a 76–77°F low expected for September 1 amid highs near 100°F. This aligns with climatological norms for early September but runs several degrees above the 1991–2020 average low of 71°F due to the absence of a frontal passage. Ensemble forecast spreads and potential for minor variations in cloud cover or dew points create genuine uncertainty across the 68–85°F range, which traders reflect in closely matched implied probabilities for the listed bins. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the next key signals ahead of market resolution.