Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Cape Town's minimum temperature on August 24 will likely fall in the 10–13°C range under clear skies and moderate southerly flow, consistent with typical late-winter climatology moderated by the Benguela Current. The near-even split between market-implied odds for 7°C or below versus 17°C or higher reflects substantial uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling rates and potential short-term shifts in wind or cloud cover. Key differentiating variables include the strength of onshore southerlies, which can suppress temperature drops, versus calm conditions that enhance surface heat loss, plus any late adjustments from updated regional model runs. Historical analogs show minima rarely deviate far from 10–12°C without strong synoptic forcing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Cape Town on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 24?
7°C or below 92%
17°C or higher 89%
11°C 37%
15°C 35%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 24, 2026
7°C or below
92%
8°C
18%
9°C
19%
10°C
20%
11°C
28%
12°C
18%
13°C
18%
14°C
2%
15°C
35%
16°C
35%
17°C or higher
89%
7°C or below 92%
17°C or higher 89%
11°C 37%
15°C 35%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 24, 2026
7°C or below
$5 KL.
92%
8°C
$0 KL.
18%
9°C
$0 KL.
19%
10°C
$0 KL.
20%
11°C
$5 KL.
28%
12°C
$0 KL.
18%
13°C
$0 KL.
18%
14°C
$5 KL.
2%
15°C
$5 KL.
35%
16°C
$5 KL.
35%
17°C or higher
$5 KL.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Cape Town's minimum temperature on August 24 will likely fall in the 10–13°C range under clear skies and moderate southerly flow, consistent with typical late-winter climatology moderated by the Benguela Current. The near-even split between market-implied odds for 7°C or below versus 17°C or higher reflects substantial uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling rates and potential short-term shifts in wind or cloud cover. Key differentiating variables include the strength of onshore southerlies, which can suppress temperature drops, versus calm conditions that enhance surface heat loss, plus any late adjustments from updated regional model runs. Historical analogs show minima rarely deviate far from 10–12°C without strong synoptic forcing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 22, 2026, 2:31 AM ET
Khối lượng
$30Ngày kết thúc
Aug 24, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 22, 2026, 2:31 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Cape Town's minimum temperature on August 24 will likely fall in the 10–13°C range under clear skies and moderate southerly flow, consistent with typical late-winter climatology moderated by the Benguela Current. The near-even split between market-implied odds for 7°C or below versus 17°C or higher reflects substantial uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling rates and potential short-term shifts in wind or cloud cover. Key differentiating variables include the strength of onshore southerlies, which can suppress temperature drops, versus calm conditions that enhance surface heat loss, plus any late adjustments from updated regional model runs. Historical analogs show minima rarely deviate far from 10–12°C without strong synoptic forcing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$30Ngày kết thúc
Aug 24, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 22, 2026, 2:31 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Cape Town's minimum temperature on August 24 will likely fall in the 10–13°C range under clear skies and moderate southerly flow, consistent with typical late-winter climatology moderated by the Benguela Current. The near-even split between market-implied odds for 7°C or below versus 17°C or higher reflects substantial uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling rates and potential short-term shifts in wind or cloud cover. Key differentiating variables include the strength of onshore southerlies, which can suppress temperature drops, versus calm conditions that enhance surface heat loss, plus any late adjustments from updated regional model runs. Historical analogs show minima rarely deviate far from 10–12°C without strong synoptic forcing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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