Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models show Istanbul overnight lows near the historical late-August average of 20–22°C on August 24, with modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover, wind patterns, and Bosphorus-influenced advection that can enhance or suppress nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions explain the near-even market-implied odds between the 28°C-or-higher bucket and the 18°C-or-below bucket, while narrower outcomes clustered around 20–24°C reflect trader consensus on baseline values. Short-range model runs exhibit typical divergence at the 48–72-hour horizon, particularly regarding high-pressure strength and marine-layer effects, leaving room for last-minute shifts before official Turkish Meteorological Service observations finalize the lowest reading.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Istanbul on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 24?
18°C or below 91%
28°C or higher 89%
19°C 37%
25°C 37%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 24, 2026
18°C or below
91%
19°C
37%
20°C
19%
21°C
19%
22°C
19%
23°C
19%
24°C
19%
25°C
37%
26°C
2%
27°C
37%
28°C or higher
89%
18°C or below 91%
28°C or higher 89%
19°C 37%
25°C 37%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 24, 2026
18°C or below
$5 KL.
91%
19°C
$5 KL.
37%
20°C
$0 KL.
19%
21°C
$0 KL.
19%
22°C
$0 KL.
19%
23°C
$0 KL.
19%
24°C
$0 KL.
19%
25°C
$5 KL.
37%
26°C
$5 KL.
2%
27°C
$5 KL.
37%
28°C or higher
$5 KL.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models show Istanbul overnight lows near the historical late-August average of 20–22°C on August 24, with modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover, wind patterns, and Bosphorus-influenced advection that can enhance or suppress nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions explain the near-even market-implied odds between the 28°C-or-higher bucket and the 18°C-or-below bucket, while narrower outcomes clustered around 20–24°C reflect trader consensus on baseline values. Short-range model runs exhibit typical divergence at the 48–72-hour horizon, particularly regarding high-pressure strength and marine-layer effects, leaving room for last-minute shifts before official Turkish Meteorological Service observations finalize the lowest reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$30Ngày kết thúc
Aug 24, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models show Istanbul overnight lows near the historical late-August average of 20–22°C on August 24, with modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover, wind patterns, and Bosphorus-influenced advection that can enhance or suppress nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions explain the near-even market-implied odds between the 28°C-or-higher bucket and the 18°C-or-below bucket, while narrower outcomes clustered around 20–24°C reflect trader consensus on baseline values. Short-range model runs exhibit typical divergence at the 48–72-hour horizon, particularly regarding high-pressure strength and marine-layer effects, leaving room for last-minute shifts before official Turkish Meteorological Service observations finalize the lowest reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$30Ngày kết thúc
Aug 24, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 22, 2026, 2:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models show Istanbul overnight lows near the historical late-August average of 20–22°C on August 24, with modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover, wind patterns, and Bosphorus-influenced advection that can enhance or suppress nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions explain the near-even market-implied odds between the 28°C-or-higher bucket and the 18°C-or-below bucket, while narrower outcomes clustered around 20–24°C reflect trader consensus on baseline values. Short-range model runs exhibit typical divergence at the 48–72-hour horizon, particularly regarding high-pressure strength and marine-layer effects, leaving room for last-minute shifts before official Turkish Meteorological Service observations finalize the lowest reading.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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