**Trader consensus centers on a minimum temperature of 26–27°C for Hong Kong on August 31, 2026, reflecting official forecast consensus and typical late-summer subtropical conditions.** A broad trough of low pressure over the coast of Guangdong and northern South China Sea continues to drive unsettled weather, with mainly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and squally thunderstorms expected to increase through the day. This persistent cloud cover and high humidity (80–95%) limit nighttime radiative cooling, supporting overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 20s. Hong Kong Observatory guidance and aligned models show a temperature range of roughly 26–31°C, with the minimum most often cited at 26–27°C amid the rain-cooled air mass. Recent days have seen similar minima (25–27°C) under comparable trough influence, consistent with August climatology where average lows hover near 25–26°C but rise slightly under sustained moisture and weak winds. No significant cold advection or clearer skies are indicated that would push readings notably lower or allow them to climb above 27°C. Key resolution thresholds align closely with these model runs, and the next HKO updates plus any revised local observations will be the primary near-term drivers for any shifts in implied probabilities.