**Persistent hot, humid conditions under a strong subtropical high-pressure system are anchoring overnight lows in Houston near 80–82°F for August 22, 2026.** Recent National Weather Service and model guidance show continued south-southwest winds advecting warm, moist Gulf air (dew points ~70–75°F), limited cloud cover, and weak nocturnal radiative cooling that prevents significant temperature drops. This produces the narrow cluster of leading market-implied outcomes around 78–83°F, where small differences in boundary-layer mixing, exact wind speeds, or residual moisture determine the precise minimum. Highs the prior day near 99–104°F have left a warm residual airmass, and climatological August averages (low ~76°F) are being exceeded by several degrees amid the ongoing heat wave. Traders assign lower probability to sub-74°F readings because no cold advection or strong front is forecast, while outcomes above 85°F would require unusually strong mixing or delayed cooling unlikely under current guidance. The tight spread in probabilities (26–27% for the central bins) reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in the final 1–2°F of nocturnal cooling rather than model disagreement on the overall regime.