**Trader consensus in this market reflects tight clustering around 24–27°C as the expected overnight minimum in Panama City, Panama, on August 22, 2026, driven by typical wet-season conditions that limit radiational cooling.** In Panama’s tropical climate during the peak rainy season, high humidity (often 80–90%+ overnight) and frequent cloud cover or showers suppress the temperature drop after sunset by trapping longwave radiation and reducing net heat loss. Light winds and scattered convection further moderate extremes, keeping the diurnal range narrow—typically 5–7°C between daytime highs near 29–31°C and nighttime lows. Recent model guidance and observations point to partly cloudy skies with a chance of showers or thunderstorms, supporting minimums near 24–26°C rather than deeper cooling under clear, calm conditions. The near-even split between 24°C and 25°C probabilities captures uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any localized rain-cooled air, while lower probabilities for 23°C or below align with the rarity of stronger cooling this time of year absent unusual atmospheric patterns. Higher outcomes above 27°C are discounted because ongoing moisture and convection favor at least modest nocturnal decline.