Current forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF consensus indicate a minimum temperature near 11–12 °C for Paris on September 18, driving the market-implied odds of 45 % for 12 °C and 27.5 % for 11 °C. These values align with typical early-autumn radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow, with recent surface observations showing overnight lows stabilizing in that range. Ensemble spreads remain modest, reflecting limited uncertainty in the 24–48-hour window, though any unexpected cloud cover or frontal passage could shift the outcome toward 13 °C or 10 °C. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and historical September climatology, which places the median minimum around 12 °C.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Paris on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 18?
12°C 45%
11°C 28%
14°C 16%
13°C 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 18, 2026
7°C or below
2%
8°C
3%
9°C
3%
10°C
11%
11°C
28%
12°C
45%
13°C
14%
14°C
16%
15°C
2%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
2%
12°C 45%
11°C 28%
14°C 16%
13°C 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 18, 2026
7°C or below
$0 KL.
2%
8°C
$0 KL.
3%
9°C
$0 KL.
3%
10°C
$61 KL.
11%
11°C
$814 KL.
28%
12°C
$471 KL.
45%
13°C
$328 KL.
14%
14°C
$0 KL.
16%
15°C
$0 KL.
2%
16°C
$0 KL.
2%
17°C or higher
$0 KL.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF consensus indicate a minimum temperature near 11–12 °C for Paris on September 18, driving the market-implied odds of 45 % for 12 °C and 27.5 % for 11 °C. These values align with typical early-autumn radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow, with recent surface observations showing overnight lows stabilizing in that range. Ensemble spreads remain modest, reflecting limited uncertainty in the 24–48-hour window, though any unexpected cloud cover or frontal passage could shift the outcome toward 13 °C or 10 °C. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and historical September climatology, which places the median minimum around 12 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,673Ngày kết thúc
Sep 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF consensus indicate a minimum temperature near 11–12 °C for Paris on September 18, driving the market-implied odds of 45 % for 12 °C and 27.5 % for 11 °C. These values align with typical early-autumn radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow, with recent surface observations showing overnight lows stabilizing in that range. Ensemble spreads remain modest, reflecting limited uncertainty in the 24–48-hour window, though any unexpected cloud cover or frontal passage could shift the outcome toward 13 °C or 10 °C. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and historical September climatology, which places the median minimum around 12 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$1,673Ngày kết thúc
Sep 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from Météo-France and ECMWF consensus indicate a minimum temperature near 11–12 °C for Paris on September 18, driving the market-implied odds of 45 % for 12 °C and 27.5 % for 11 °C. These values align with typical early-autumn radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow, with recent surface observations showing overnight lows stabilizing in that range. Ensemble spreads remain modest, reflecting limited uncertainty in the 24–48-hour window, though any unexpected cloud cover or frontal passage could shift the outcome toward 13 °C or 10 °C. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and historical September climatology, which places the median minimum around 12 °C.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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