**Recent typhoon activity and associated cloud cover and rainfall are the main near-term drivers shaping market-implied odds for Tokyo’s lowest temperature on September 23.** A powerful typhoon (Dujuan/25号) tracked close to eastern Japan on September 20–21, delivering heavy rain, strong winds, and linear rain bands that elevated flood and landslide risks across the Kanto region including Tokyo. This system has left lingering overcast skies, elevated humidity, and suppressed daytime heating heading into the 23rd. Official and model guidance now converge on daytime highs of roughly 24–27 °C (76–81 °F) and overnight/early-morning lows of 21–22 °C (70–72 °F) under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with light rain chances. These values align closely with the leading 22 °C outcome (47.5 % implied probability) and support the elevated odds on 21 °C and 23 °C bins. The 17 °C-or-below market (25.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty around post-storm cooling or localized heavy-rain effects that could pull the minimum lower, while the 27 °C-or-higher outcome (23.5 %) remains a long-shot tail risk requiring unexpectedly rapid clearing and warming. Climatologically, late-September Tokyo minima average near 19 °C, but the current disturbed pattern favors a slightly milder floor. Key upcoming updates include the next Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast runs and any revisions to steering flow or residual moisture, which traders will watch closely before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 23?
22°C 48%
19°C 28%
17°C or below 26%
24°C 26%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 23, 2026
17°C or below
26%
18°C
24%
19°C
28%
20°C
15%
21°C
25%
22°C
48%
23°C
20%
24°C
26%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C or higher
23%
22°C 48%
19°C 28%
17°C or below 26%
24°C 26%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 23, 2026
17°C or below
$20 KL.
26%
18°C
$0 KL.
24%
19°C
$0 KL.
28%
20°C
$0 KL.
15%
21°C
$0 KL.
25%
22°C
$37 KL.
48%
23°C
$0 KL.
20%
24°C
$0 KL.
26%
25°C
$0 KL.
2%
26°C
$0 KL.
2%
27°C or higher
$0 KL.
23%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent typhoon activity and associated cloud cover and rainfall are the main near-term drivers shaping market-implied odds for Tokyo’s lowest temperature on September 23.** A powerful typhoon (Dujuan/25号) tracked close to eastern Japan on September 20–21, delivering heavy rain, strong winds, and linear rain bands that elevated flood and landslide risks across the Kanto region including Tokyo. This system has left lingering overcast skies, elevated humidity, and suppressed daytime heating heading into the 23rd.
Official and model guidance now converge on daytime highs of roughly 24–27 °C (76–81 °F) and overnight/early-morning lows of 21–22 °C (70–72 °F) under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with light rain chances. These values align closely with the leading 22 °C outcome (47.5 % implied probability) and support the elevated odds on 21 °C and 23 °C bins. The 17 °C-or-below market (25.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty around post-storm cooling or localized heavy-rain effects that could pull the minimum lower, while the 27 °C-or-higher outcome (23.5 %) remains a long-shot tail risk requiring unexpectedly rapid clearing and warming.
Climatologically, late-September Tokyo minima average near 19 °C, but the current disturbed pattern favors a slightly milder floor. Key upcoming updates include the next Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast runs and any revisions to steering flow or residual moisture, which traders will watch closely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Khối lượng
$57Ngày kết thúc
Sep 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent typhoon activity and associated cloud cover and rainfall are the main near-term drivers shaping market-implied odds for Tokyo’s lowest temperature on September 23.** A powerful typhoon (Dujuan/25号) tracked close to eastern Japan on September 20–21, delivering heavy rain, strong winds, and linear rain bands that elevated flood and landslide risks across the Kanto region including Tokyo. This system has left lingering overcast skies, elevated humidity, and suppressed daytime heating heading into the 23rd.
Official and model guidance now converge on daytime highs of roughly 24–27 °C (76–81 °F) and overnight/early-morning lows of 21–22 °C (70–72 °F) under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with light rain chances. These values align closely with the leading 22 °C outcome (47.5 % implied probability) and support the elevated odds on 21 °C and 23 °C bins. The 17 °C-or-below market (25.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty around post-storm cooling or localized heavy-rain effects that could pull the minimum lower, while the 27 °C-or-higher outcome (23.5 %) remains a long-shot tail risk requiring unexpectedly rapid clearing and warming.
Climatologically, late-September Tokyo minima average near 19 °C, but the current disturbed pattern favors a slightly milder floor. Key upcoming updates include the next Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast runs and any revisions to steering flow or residual moisture, which traders will watch closely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$57Ngày kết thúc
Sep 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Recent typhoon activity and associated cloud cover and rainfall are the main near-term drivers shaping market-implied odds for Tokyo’s lowest temperature on September 23.** A powerful typhoon (Dujuan/25号) tracked close to eastern Japan on September 20–21, delivering heavy rain, strong winds, and linear rain bands that elevated flood and landslide risks across the Kanto region including Tokyo. This system has left lingering overcast skies, elevated humidity, and suppressed daytime heating heading into the 23rd. Official and model guidance now converge on daytime highs of roughly 24–27 °C (76–81 °F) and overnight/early-morning lows of 21–22 °C (70–72 °F) under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with light rain chances. These values align closely with the leading 22 °C outcome (47.5 % implied probability) and support the elevated odds on 21 °C and 23 °C bins. The 17 °C-or-below market (25.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty around post-storm cooling or localized heavy-rain effects that could pull the minimum lower, while the 27 °C-or-higher outcome (23.5 %) remains a long-shot tail risk requiring unexpectedly rapid clearing and warming. Climatologically, late-September Tokyo minima average near 19 °C, but the current disturbed pattern favors a slightly milder floor. Key upcoming updates include the next Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast runs and any revisions to steering flow or residual moisture, which traders will watch closely before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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