Republican Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Montana Senate race following incumbent Steve Daines's March withdrawal and endorsement, with Alme securing the Republican nomination in June and consistently polling in the mid-40s against independent Seth Bodnar in the mid-20s and Democrat Alani Bankhead in the teens. Montana's partisan composition, combined with Alme's fundraising and organizational advantages as the major-party nominee, underpins trader consensus around a strong Republican outcome. Bodnar's independent bid, backed by former Senator Jon Tester's network, creates the main alternative path, though current polling margins and the state's electoral fundamentals limit its projected impact. Late-cycle shifts in turnout, candidate messaging on energy and agriculture, or unexpected national events could narrow the gap before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMontana Senate Election Winner
Montana Senate Election Winner
Republican 93%
Independent 3.8%
Democrat <1%
$111,460 KL.
$111,460 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
93%
Independent
4%
Democrat
1%
Republican 93%
Independent 3.8%
Democrat <1%
$111,460 KL.
$111,460 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$55,889 KL.
93%
Independent
$15,409 KL.
4%
Democrat
$40,162 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Montana Senate race following incumbent Steve Daines's March withdrawal and endorsement, with Alme securing the Republican nomination in June and consistently polling in the mid-40s against independent Seth Bodnar in the mid-20s and Democrat Alani Bankhead in the teens. Montana's partisan composition, combined with Alme's fundraising and organizational advantages as the major-party nominee, underpins trader consensus around a strong Republican outcome. Bodnar's independent bid, backed by former Senator Jon Tester's network, creates the main alternative path, though current polling margins and the state's electoral fundamentals limit its projected impact. Late-cycle shifts in turnout, candidate messaging on energy and agriculture, or unexpected national events could narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Thị trường mở: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Khối lượng
$111,460Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Montana Senate race following incumbent Steve Daines's March withdrawal and endorsement, with Alme securing the Republican nomination in June and consistently polling in the mid-40s against independent Seth Bodnar in the mid-20s and Democrat Alani Bankhead in the teens. Montana's partisan composition, combined with Alme's fundraising and organizational advantages as the major-party nominee, underpins trader consensus around a strong Republican outcome. Bodnar's independent bid, backed by former Senator Jon Tester's network, creates the main alternative path, though current polling margins and the state's electoral fundamentals limit its projected impact. Late-cycle shifts in turnout, candidate messaging on energy and agriculture, or unexpected national events could narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Khối lượng
$111,460Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Montana Senate race following incumbent Steve Daines's March withdrawal and endorsement, with Alme securing the Republican nomination in June and consistently polling in the mid-40s against independent Seth Bodnar in the mid-20s and Democrat Alani Bankhead in the teens. Montana's partisan composition, combined with Alme's fundraising and organizational advantages as the major-party nominee, underpins trader consensus around a strong Republican outcome. Bodnar's independent bid, backed by former Senator Jon Tester's network, creates the main alternative path, though current polling margins and the state's electoral fundamentals limit its projected impact. Late-cycle shifts in turnout, candidate messaging on energy and agriculture, or unexpected national events could narrow the gap before November.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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