Anthropic’s September 22 announcement of Claude Opus 5.5, which explicitly stated that Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 would follow in the coming weeks, is the main catalyst pushing market-implied odds toward a cluster of late-September and early-October dates. With Sonnet 5 still the current mid-tier model and no 5.5 identifier, pricing, or system card yet listed in official documentation as of September 23, traders see elevated near-term probability for an imminent drop while assigning meaningful weight to early October windows consistent with Anthropic’s historical cadence between flagship and mid-tier releases. The “on or prior to September 24” outcome at 46.5% reflects uncertainty around how quickly the lab can finalize and ship the follow-on model after the recent Opus update.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOctober 8 26%
October 15 25%
On or prior to September 24 24%
September 30 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 24, 2026
On or prior to September 24
24%
September 25
13%
September 26
13%
September 27
14%
September 28
14%
September 29
13%
September 30
14%
October 1
13%
October 2
14%
October 3
13%
October 4
14%
October 5
14%
October 6
14%
October 7
14%
October 8
26%
October 9
14%
October 10
13%
October 11
14%
October 12
13%
October 13
14%
October 14
14%
October 15
25%
No release by October 15
14%
October 8 26%
October 15 25%
On or prior to September 24 24%
September 30 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 24, 2026
On or prior to September 24
$0 KL.
24%
September 25
$0 KL.
13%
September 26
$0 KL.
13%
September 27
$0 KL.
14%
September 28
$0 KL.
14%
September 29
$0 KL.
13%
September 30
$0 KL.
14%
October 1
$0 KL.
13%
October 2
$0 KL.
14%
October 3
$0 KL.
13%
October 4
$0 KL.
14%
October 5
$0 KL.
14%
October 6
$0 KL.
14%
October 7
$0 KL.
14%
October 8
$0 KL.
26%
October 9
$0 KL.
14%
October 10
$0 KL.
13%
October 11
$0 KL.
14%
October 12
$0 KL.
13%
October 13
$0 KL.
14%
October 14
$0 KL.
14%
October 15
$0 KL.
25%
No release by October 15
$0 KL.
14%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s September 22 announcement of Claude Opus 5.5, which explicitly stated that Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 would follow in the coming weeks, is the main catalyst pushing market-implied odds toward a cluster of late-September and early-October dates. With Sonnet 5 still the current mid-tier model and no 5.5 identifier, pricing, or system card yet listed in official documentation as of September 23, traders see elevated near-term probability for an imminent drop while assigning meaningful weight to early October windows consistent with Anthropic’s historical cadence between flagship and mid-tier releases. The “on or prior to September 24” outcome at 46.5% reflects uncertainty around how quickly the lab can finalize and ship the follow-on model after the recent Opus update.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Sep 24, 2026, 3:31 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Oct 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 24, 2026, 3:31 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s September 22 announcement of Claude Opus 5.5, which explicitly stated that Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 would follow in the coming weeks, is the main catalyst pushing market-implied odds toward a cluster of late-September and early-October dates. With Sonnet 5 still the current mid-tier model and no 5.5 identifier, pricing, or system card yet listed in official documentation as of September 23, traders see elevated near-term probability for an imminent drop while assigning meaningful weight to early October windows consistent with Anthropic’s historical cadence between flagship and mid-tier releases. The “on or prior to September 24” outcome at 46.5% reflects uncertainty around how quickly the lab can finalize and ship the follow-on model after the recent Opus update.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Oct 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 24, 2026, 3:31 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47de9d...Anthropic’s September 22 announcement of Claude Opus 5.5, which explicitly stated that Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 would follow in the coming weeks, is the main catalyst pushing market-implied odds toward a cluster of late-September and early-October dates. With Sonnet 5 still the current mid-tier model and no 5.5 identifier, pricing, or system card yet listed in official documentation as of September 23, traders see elevated near-term probability for an imminent drop while assigning meaningful weight to early October windows consistent with Anthropic’s historical cadence between flagship and mid-tier releases. The “on or prior to September 24” outcome at 46.5% reflects uncertainty around how quickly the lab can finalize and ship the follow-on model after the recent Opus update.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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