Imelda Castro Castro holds an 84.5% implied probability in the Sinaloa gubernatorial election market because Morena and its allies designated her in August 2026 as the state coordinator for the Fourth Transformation, the role that typically becomes the party’s nominee. The June 2027 contest occurs after Rubén Rocha Moya’s resignation amid U.S. charges, leaving an interim Morena administration and preserving the party’s institutional edge. Other listed aspirants, including María Teresa Guerra Ochoa and Graciela Domínguez Nava, registered for the internal process but trail after Castro’s selection and the withdrawal of competing profiles. Opposition figures such as Mario Zamora Gastélum register single-digit probabilities, reflecting Morena’s polling lead and the structural advantages of incumbency heading into the June vote. Traders price the outcome accordingly, with resolution tied to official results from the June 2027 election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtImelda Castro Castro 85%
María Teresa Guerra Ochoa 4.7%
Juan de Dios Gámez Mendívil 3.5%
Omar López Campos 3.4%
$31,091 KL.
$31,091 KL.
Imelda Castro Castro
85%
María Teresa Guerra Ochoa
5%
Juan de Dios Gámez Mendívil
3%
Omar López Campos
3%
Gerardo Octavio Vargas Landeros
3%
Tomás de Jesús López Bajo
3%
Graciela Domínguez Nava
3%
Lucila Ayala de Moreschi
2%
Guillermo Romero Rodríguez
2%
Sergio Torres Félix
2%
Jesús Alfonso Ibarra Ramos
2%
María Fernanda Rivera
2%
Ricardo Madrid Pérez
2%
Paloma Sánchez Ramos
2%
Roxana Rubio Valdez
2%
Mario Zamora Gastélum
1%
Rodolfo Valenzuela Sánchez
1%
Eduardo Ortiz Hernández
1%
Kristiam Alexis Espinoza García
1%
Jesús Fernando García Hernández
1%
Estrella Palacios Domínguez
<1%
Imelda Castro Castro 85%
María Teresa Guerra Ochoa 4.7%
Juan de Dios Gámez Mendívil 3.5%
Omar López Campos 3.4%
$31,091 KL.
$31,091 KL.
Imelda Castro Castro
85%
María Teresa Guerra Ochoa
5%
Juan de Dios Gámez Mendívil
3%
Omar López Campos
3%
Gerardo Octavio Vargas Landeros
3%
Tomás de Jesús López Bajo
3%
Graciela Domínguez Nava
3%
Lucila Ayala de Moreschi
2%
Guillermo Romero Rodríguez
2%
Sergio Torres Félix
2%
Jesús Alfonso Ibarra Ramos
2%
María Fernanda Rivera
2%
Ricardo Madrid Pérez
2%
Paloma Sánchez Ramos
2%
Roxana Rubio Valdez
2%
Mario Zamora Gastélum
1%
Rodolfo Valenzuela Sánchez
1%
Eduardo Ortiz Hernández
1%
Kristiam Alexis Espinoza García
1%
Jesús Fernando García Hernández
1%
Estrella Palacios Domínguez
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Thị trường mở: Aug 5, 2026, 6:59 AM ET
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sinaloa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sinaloa and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Imelda Castro Castro holds an 84.5% implied probability in the Sinaloa gubernatorial election market because Morena and its allies designated her in August 2026 as the state coordinator for the Fourth Transformation, the role that typically becomes the party’s nominee. The June 2027 contest occurs after Rubén Rocha Moya’s resignation amid U.S. charges, leaving an interim Morena administration and preserving the party’s institutional edge. Other listed aspirants, including María Teresa Guerra Ochoa and Graciela Domínguez Nava, registered for the internal process but trail after Castro’s selection and the withdrawal of competing profiles. Opposition figures such as Mario Zamora Gastélum register single-digit probabilities, reflecting Morena’s polling lead and the structural advantages of incumbency heading into the June vote. Traders price the outcome accordingly, with resolution tied to official results from the June 2027 election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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