**Trader consensus has coalesced around Z.ai at 90.5% implied probability** because Ox Alpha launched as a free stealth model on OpenRouter in mid-August 2026 with technical fingerprints—tokenizer behavior, error-code dialects, and serving-layer artifacts—that closely match Zhipu AI’s GLM-5 family. Community probes and infrastructure forensics have repeatedly linked the model to Z.ai’s prior anonymous testing patterns, such as Pony Alpha, while ruling out most Western labs on hosting and response signatures. The 1M-token multimodal reasoning model’s strong early coding benchmarks have amplified speculation that Z.ai is using the preview to gather unbranded feedback ahead of an official GLM release. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected claim by another Chinese lab or confirmation that a U.S. provider fine-tuned and hosts GLM weights under different infrastructure.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtZ.ai 91%
Google 4.3%
Xiaomi 3.8%
Cursor 2.3%
MỚI
$28,880 KL.
MỚI
$28,880 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Z.ai
91%
4%
Xiaomi
4%
Cursor
2%
Safe Superintelligence
2%
Meta
1%
Microsoft
1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Amazon
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot AI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Z.ai 91%
Google 4.3%
Xiaomi 3.8%
Cursor 2.3%
MỚI
$28,880 KL.
MỚI
$28,880 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Z.ai
$8,760 KL.
91%
$1,697 KL.
4%
Xiaomi
$1,276 KL.
4%
Cursor
$1,224 KL.
2%
Safe Superintelligence
$1,352 KL.
2%
Meta
$366 KL.
1%
Microsoft
$1,177 KL.
1%
xAI
$1,306 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$1,289 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,121 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$579 KL.
<1%
OpenAI
$527 KL.
<1%
Anthropic
$547 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$532 KL.
<1%
Nvidia
$918 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$770 KL.
<1%
MiniMax
$871 KL.
<1%
Tencent
$984 KL.
<1%
StepFun
$881 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$981 KL.
<1%
Moonshot AI
$757 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$366 KL.
<1%
Thinky
$602 KL.
<1%
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus has coalesced around Z.ai at 90.5% implied probability** because Ox Alpha launched as a free stealth model on OpenRouter in mid-August 2026 with technical fingerprints—tokenizer behavior, error-code dialects, and serving-layer artifacts—that closely match Zhipu AI’s GLM-5 family. Community probes and infrastructure forensics have repeatedly linked the model to Z.ai’s prior anonymous testing patterns, such as Pony Alpha, while ruling out most Western labs on hosting and response signatures. The 1M-token multimodal reasoning model’s strong early coding benchmarks have amplified speculation that Z.ai is using the preview to gather unbranded feedback ahead of an official GLM release. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected claim by another Chinese lab or confirmation that a U.S. provider fine-tuned and hosts GLM weights under different infrastructure.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ET
Khối lượng
$28,880Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus has coalesced around Z.ai at 90.5% implied probability** because Ox Alpha launched as a free stealth model on OpenRouter in mid-August 2026 with technical fingerprints—tokenizer behavior, error-code dialects, and serving-layer artifacts—that closely match Zhipu AI’s GLM-5 family. Community probes and infrastructure forensics have repeatedly linked the model to Z.ai’s prior anonymous testing patterns, such as Pony Alpha, while ruling out most Western labs on hosting and response signatures. The 1M-token multimodal reasoning model’s strong early coding benchmarks have amplified speculation that Z.ai is using the preview to gather unbranded feedback ahead of an official GLM release. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected claim by another Chinese lab or confirmation that a U.S. provider fine-tuned and hosts GLM weights under different infrastructure.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$28,880Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus has coalesced around Z.ai at 90.5% implied probability** because Ox Alpha launched as a free stealth model on OpenRouter in mid-August 2026 with technical fingerprints—tokenizer behavior, error-code dialects, and serving-layer artifacts—that closely match Zhipu AI’s GLM-5 family. Community probes and infrastructure forensics have repeatedly linked the model to Z.ai’s prior anonymous testing patterns, such as Pony Alpha, while ruling out most Western labs on hosting and response signatures. The 1M-token multimodal reasoning model’s strong early coding benchmarks have amplified speculation that Z.ai is using the preview to gather unbranded feedback ahead of an official GLM release. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected claim by another Chinese lab or confirmation that a U.S. provider fine-tuned and hosts GLM weights under different infrastructure.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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