Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican tilt, demonstrated by large margins in recent presidential and statewide contests, combined with his established record and strong primary performance. Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a political newcomer and former farmer, secured her nomination but trails significantly in polling averages and fundraising, with forecasts from multiple outlets rating the contest as safely Republican. Recent developments, including Shoffner's adjustments on immigration enforcement after early campaign comments, have not altered the fundamentals. Late-breaking events such as scandals, health developments, or sharp national shifts could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though historical patterns in the state suggest limited realistic pathways for an upset.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$19,090 交易量
$19,090 交易量
2026-11-03
湯姆·柯頓（共和黨）
95%
哈莉·肖夫納（民主黨）
5%
$19,090 交易量
$19,090 交易量
2026-11-03
湯姆·柯頓（共和黨）
$14,505 交易量
95%
哈莉·肖夫納（民主黨）
$4,585 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican tilt, demonstrated by large margins in recent presidential and statewide contests, combined with his established record and strong primary performance. Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a political newcomer and former farmer, secured her nomination but trails significantly in polling averages and fundraising, with forecasts from multiple outlets rating the contest as safely Republican. Recent developments, including Shoffner's adjustments on immigration enforcement after early campaign comments, have not altered the fundamentals. Late-breaking events such as scandals, health developments, or sharp national shifts could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though historical patterns in the state suggest limited realistic pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$19,090結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican tilt, demonstrated by large margins in recent presidential and statewide contests, combined with his established record and strong primary performance. Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a political newcomer and former farmer, secured her nomination but trails significantly in polling averages and fundraising, with forecasts from multiple outlets rating the contest as safely Republican. Recent developments, including Shoffner's adjustments on immigration enforcement after early campaign comments, have not altered the fundamentals. Late-breaking events such as scandals, health developments, or sharp national shifts could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though historical patterns in the state suggest limited realistic pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$19,090結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETIncumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican tilt, demonstrated by large margins in recent presidential and statewide contests, combined with his established record and strong primary performance. Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a political newcomer and former farmer, secured her nomination but trails significantly in polling averages and fundraising, with forecasts from multiple outlets rating the contest as safely Republican. Recent developments, including Shoffner's adjustments on immigration enforcement after early campaign comments, have not altered the fundamentals. Late-breaking events such as scandals, health developments, or sharp national shifts could theoretically narrow the gap before November 3, though historical patterns in the state suggest limited realistic pathways for an upset.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
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