Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in the AZ-09 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean in western Arizona counties where GOP voter registration exceeds Democrats by more than two-to-one. Gosar won reelection with roughly 65 percent in 2024 and advanced unopposed through the July 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Dani Sterbinsky also faced no primary opposition. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on the district’s partisan fundamentals and Gosar’s consistent margins. Traders price in limited upset risk ahead of the November 3 general election, though a major personal scandal, serious health development, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the gap.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$26,127 交易量
$26,127 交易量
2026-11-02
保羅·高薩（共和黨）
95%
達妮·斯特賓斯基（民主黨）
4%
$26,127 交易量
$26,127 交易量
2026-11-02
保羅·高薩（共和黨）
$10,243 交易量
95%
達妮·斯特賓斯基（民主黨）
$15,884 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in the AZ-09 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean in western Arizona counties where GOP voter registration exceeds Democrats by more than two-to-one. Gosar won reelection with roughly 65 percent in 2024 and advanced unopposed through the July 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Dani Sterbinsky also faced no primary opposition. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on the district’s partisan fundamentals and Gosar’s consistent margins. Traders price in limited upset risk ahead of the November 3 general election, though a major personal scandal, serious health development, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$26,127結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in the AZ-09 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean in western Arizona counties where GOP voter registration exceeds Democrats by more than two-to-one. Gosar won reelection with roughly 65 percent in 2024 and advanced unopposed through the July 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Dani Sterbinsky also faced no primary opposition. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on the district’s partisan fundamentals and Gosar’s consistent margins. Traders price in limited upset risk ahead of the November 3 general election, though a major personal scandal, serious health development, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$26,127結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETIncumbent Republican Paul Gosar holds a commanding lead in the AZ-09 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean in western Arizona counties where GOP voter registration exceeds Democrats by more than two-to-one. Gosar won reelection with roughly 65 percent in 2024 and advanced unopposed through the July 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Dani Sterbinsky also faced no primary opposition. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on the district’s partisan fundamentals and Gosar’s consistent margins. Traders price in limited upset risk ahead of the November 3 general election, though a major personal scandal, serious health development, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the gap.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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