Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5, featuring an expanded effort ladder with max-level reasoning, 1-million-token context, and state-of-the-art results on coding and reasoning benchmarks like SWE-bench and Frontier-Bench, has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward claude-opus-5-max at 87.5% implied probability. The model’s combination of near-frontier performance at Opus pricing, default thinking mode, and rapid adoption across API platforms has positioned the max variant as the clear leader ahead of the August 24 evaluation window, while the high-effort sibling trails at 6.9%. Limited credible competition from other labs or open-weight entries such as Qwen3.8-max keeps “Other” below 7%, with no major capability shifts reported in the past two weeks to alter the current sentiment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於claude-opus-5-max 88%
claude-opus-5-high 7.1%
其他 5.9%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 1.2%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
claude-opus-5-max
88%
claude-opus-5-high
7%
其他
6%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
1%
qwen3.8-max
1%
claude-opus-5-max 88%
claude-opus-5-high 7.1%
其他 5.9%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 1.2%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
claude-opus-5-max
$2,676 交易量
88%
claude-opus-5-high
$296 交易量
7%
其他
$684 交易量
6%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$203 交易量
1%
qwen3.8-max
$151 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5, featuring an expanded effort ladder with max-level reasoning, 1-million-token context, and state-of-the-art results on coding and reasoning benchmarks like SWE-bench and Frontier-Bench, has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward claude-opus-5-max at 87.5% implied probability. The model’s combination of near-frontier performance at Opus pricing, default thinking mode, and rapid adoption across API platforms has positioned the max variant as the clear leader ahead of the August 24 evaluation window, while the high-effort sibling trails at 6.9%. Limited credible competition from other labs or open-weight entries such as Qwen3.8-max keeps “Other” below 7%, with no major capability shifts reported in the past two weeks to alter the current sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
交易量
$4,010結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5, featuring an expanded effort ladder with max-level reasoning, 1-million-token context, and state-of-the-art results on coding and reasoning benchmarks like SWE-bench and Frontier-Bench, has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward claude-opus-5-max at 87.5% implied probability. The model’s combination of near-frontier performance at Opus pricing, default thinking mode, and rapid adoption across API platforms has positioned the max variant as the clear leader ahead of the August 24 evaluation window, while the high-effort sibling trails at 6.9%. Limited credible competition from other labs or open-weight entries such as Qwen3.8-max keeps “Other” below 7%, with no major capability shifts reported in the past two weeks to alter the current sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$4,010結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ETAnthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5, featuring an expanded effort ladder with max-level reasoning, 1-million-token context, and state-of-the-art results on coding and reasoning benchmarks like SWE-bench and Frontier-Bench, has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward claude-opus-5-max at 87.5% implied probability. The model’s combination of near-frontier performance at Opus pricing, default thinking mode, and rapid adoption across API platforms has positioned the max variant as the clear leader ahead of the August 24 evaluation window, while the high-effort sibling trails at 6.9%. Limited credible competition from other labs or open-weight entries such as Qwen3.8-max keeps “Other” below 7%, with no major capability shifts reported in the past two weeks to alter the current sentiment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions